20240308-招银国际-Steady_progress_towards_a_sustainable_business_model_8页_1mb

报告摘要

Analyst rating: BUY for Bilibili, recommending potential 15%+ return over 12 months.
Target price reduced to US$20.50 per ADS (down from US$24.00), implying upside from current US$10.81 price.
4Q23 financial results: Revenue grew 3% YoY to RMB6.35bn (in line with estimates), adjusted net loss narrowed 58% YoY to RMB556mn (better than consensus estimate of RMB677mn).
Full-year 2023: Revenue increased 3% YoY to RMB22.5bn, adjusted net loss narrowed 49% YoY to RMB3.4bn.
Gross margin improved to 26.1% in 4Q23, operating cash flow positive at RMB267mn for 2023.

Advertising: Revenue surged 28% YoY in 4Q23 to RMB1.93bn, driven by performance-based ads; expected 20% YoY growth in 2024.
VAS (Video and Live Streaming): Revenue increased 22% YoY to RMB2.86bn; key to monetization, with robust mobile game legacy titles.
Mobile Games: Revenue declined 12% YoY to RMB1.00bn due to high base, but new game launches expected to drive growth in 2024.
User metrics: Average DAUs rose 8% YoY to 100.1mn in 4Q23; GMV in e-commerce ecosystem exceeded RMB10bn in 2023.
2024 outlook: Aim for double-digit revenue growth and non-GAAP operating breakeven in Q3 2024, as monetization and content ecosystem improve.

SOTP valuation: Total target price US$20.50 per ADS, based on business segments (advertising, VAS, mobile games, IP derivatives).
Peer comparison: Average PE/PS multiples show valuation slightly below or at par with similar companies in gaming and advertising sectors.
Financial projections: 2024E revenue expected to grow 10% YoY, adjusted net margin to rise to 4.4%.

Analyst certification confirms personal views and adherence to disclosure rules.
Emphasis on investment risks: Actual performance may vary, and past results do not guarantee future outcomes.
Market and liquidity risks are inherent; no liability for reliance on report information.

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