IMF-在欧元区缺少进口_国内货币政策_跨境同步和需求组成（英）-2025_44页_3mb

Summary

This paper examines the relationship between central bank interest rate policy and a country’s trade position, focusing on the euro area’s significant contraction in imports during 2023 despite resilient GDP growth. It argues that monetary policy tightening alters domestic demand composition, thereby influencing import dynamics. The study finds that accounting for lending rates in an import demand elasticity regression significantly improves model fit, highlighting the role of monetary policy in the recent import decline.

Key findings include:

• High lending rates increase the sensitivity of imports to domestic demand composition, with investment and exports being the most affected.
• Cross-border synchronization of monetary policy tightening amplifies the negative effect on imports.
• Non-linear effects of lending rates on imports are observed for capital and durable goods, but not for services.

The paper suggests that understanding this channel is crucial for policymakers to better calibrate monetary policy, particularly in the context of the euro area’s current cycle.