2025-06-12-Jefferies-甲骨文（ORCL）_积压订单激增预示2026财年云业务上行潜力_11页_175kb

Oracle Equity Research Summary (June 12, 2025)

Key Highlights:

• Oracle exceeded expectations with 41% revenue growth in Q4, guided to 100% RPO growth for FY2026 driven by strong AI and non-AI workloads.
• Cloud revenue acceleration expected, with IaaS growing to >70% in FY2026 and OCI consumption at 62%.
• Total FY2026 revenue outlook raised to $67B, indicating 16% year-over-year growth.
• SaaS shows momentum, with 12% year-over-year growth and 22% for Fusion.

Performance Analysis:

• Backlog surged 41% y/y to $138B, supporting upside potential to 32x FY2026 EPS.
• Op margin at 44.2%, below consensus expectations.
• Capex increased by 55% q/q to $9.1B to address demand, raising FY2026 capex guidance to $25B.

Valuation and Recommendations:

• Jefferies maintains "Buy" rating with a raised price target to $220 (previously $176.38), implying a 25% upside.
• Traded at 32x CY2026 GAAP EPS, compared to Microsoft's 29x.
• DCF analysis supports the $220 target, based on 26x FY2027 EPS estimates.

Risks and Challenges:

• Mixed F4Q results (IaaS below consensus, SaaS ahead), with backlog momentum supporting revenue conversion.
• Stargate project timeline uncertain, with no near-term revenue contribution expected.
• Execution risks in migrating customers to cloud infrastructure, competitive pressures from AWS and Azure.

Growth Drivers:

• App migration to SaaS and expanding cloud infrastructure services fuel top-line acceleration.
• Environmental targets include 100% renewable energy by 2025 and net-zero emissions by 2050.

Forward Outlook:

• FY2026 and FY2027 revenue targets signal confidence in growth drivers.
• Analysts emphasize supply-demand gaps in cloud, with potential for multiple expansion as backlog translates to revenue.