CSIS-到2030年全球经济的主要趋势（英文）-2020.9-36页_802kb

Summary of Key Trends in the Global Economy through 2030

Core Content

This report by the CSIS Trade Commission on Affirming American Leadership, authored by William Reinsch and Jack Caporal, outlines key economic trends that will shape the global economy through 2030. It emphasizes the need for the United States to maintain its leadership in trade and innovation in the face of growing competition from emerging economies, especially China, and the challenges posed by technological change, demographic shifts, and climate change.

Main Points

U.S. Economic Structure and Trends

• The U.S. economy is services-oriented, with a declining share of manufacturing and a growing role of digital commerce and information and communications technology (ICT).
• Manufacturing remains a significant sector, but its share of GDP and employment has declined over the past few decades.
• Services industries have expanded, contributing over 75% of U.S. GDP by 2017, and are expected to continue growing.
• Automation and AI will reshape the labor market, with potential job displacement for low-skilled workers and increased productivity in manufacturing.
• The U.S. labor market is expected to face long-term challenges due to rising inequality, especially for non-top 10% earners, and the Covid-19 pandemic may exacerbate these issues.

Global Economic Trends

• The global economy is also moving toward services orientation, with services accounting for around 40-54% of GDP in low- and middle-income countries, respectively.
• China's growth is expected to slow, but still outpace that of OECD countries. Its GDP growth rate is projected to fall to around 5.6% by 2030.
• Demographic shifts will lead to a new global middle class emerging in Asia, which will shift the economic center of gravity toward the region.
• Regionalization of supply chains is expected to increase due to rising wages in emerging markets, productivity gains, and climate change risks.

Trade and Innovation

• The U.S. must adopt a bold trade agenda to maintain its leadership, especially in innovation and digital economy.
• China is expected to close the innovation gap with the U.S., particularly in knowledge-intensive industries, and will likely continue to support national champions.
• Data governance will become a critical issue, as the digital economy grows and requires global rules and norms to ensure coherence and competitiveness.

Challenges and Opportunities

• Covid-19 has accelerated automation and reshoring trends, particularly in high-risk sectors.
• Inequality in the U.S. is a major concern, with low-skilled workers facing the most significant transition costs.
• The U.S. must invest in lifelong learning, reform unemployment insurance, and support innovation to remain competitive.
• The U.S. digital economy is a key driver of future growth, but its success depends on sustained policy support.

Key Recommendations

• Strengthen the U.S. workforce through skills development and labor market reforms.
• Promote innovation through robust IP protection, government support for R&D, and STEM education.
• Adopt a bold trade strategy that addresses regionalization of supply chains, protectionism, and institutional shortcomings.
• Address inequality by ensuring equitable access to education, healthcare, and housing.
• Develop global data governance to avoid fragmentation of the digital economy and AI advancements.

Conclusion

The U.S. will remain a major driver of global growth, but its share of the global economy is expected to decline as developing economies in Asia grow. To maintain global leadership, the U.S. must adapt to technological changes, demographic shifts, and new economic realities. The report underscores the importance of policy intervention in ensuring resilience, innovation, and equitable growth in the U.S. and globally.

Key Information

• The U.S. services sector dominates the economy, with digital commerce and ICT playing a crucial role.
• China is projected to slow its GDP growth but will still outperform OECD countries.
• Climate change and pandemics will influence supply chain dynamics and labor market trends.
• Automation and AI will transform the workforce, requiring new policies to support transition and adaptation.
• Global data governance is essential to maintain the coherence of the digital economy and AI development.

Authors and Editors

• Authors: William Reinsch, Jack Caporal
• Editors: Matthew P. Goodman, Scott Miller
• Commission Co-Chairs:
  • Ambassador Charlene Barshefsky
  • Senator William E. Brock
  • Mr. Frederick W. Smith
• Commissioners: A diverse group of experts and former policymakers from various sectors, including business, academia, and government.

Acknowledgments

• The report acknowledges support from numerous CSIS scholars and experts, including Grant Aldonas, Gerri Fiala, Brian Pomper, and others.
• Financial support was provided by the CSIS Strategic Initiatives Fund and individual contributors.

Supporting Data

• Figure 1: Shows manufacturing productivity rising alongside declining employment.
• Figure 2: Illustrates China's economic slowdown, highlighting the gap between provincial and national GDP data.

This report serves as a comprehensive analysis of the economic landscape through 2030, emphasizing the need for strategic policy intervention to sustain U.S. leadership and global economic stability.