2025-06-13-花旗集团-Rentokil公司（RTO）_戴姆勒卡车控股公司（DTGGE）_斯凯孚（SKFB）_欧洲要点_14页_205kb

报告摘要

SKF (SKFb.ST): Rating renewed (Neutral) after suspension, Target Price SEK 232. Key: Ongoing cost saving efforts ahead of Q2, but wait for confirmation; plans risked delayed. Upside expected from shorter-cycle self-help catalysts like DTG.
Daimler Truck Holding AG (DTGGe.DE): Upgrading rating (to 'Buy'). Key: Anticipated Earnings Committee Meeting (ECM) on July 7-8 (Charlotte) likely signals stronger self-help commitment; new buyback program expected. Reiterate 2030 adj. IB RoS >12% ambition; potential EUR 2bn buyback driven by Fuso/Hino merger cash inflow.
Rentokil (RTO.L): 'Buy' rating. Key: Low expectations despite self-help initiatives. Q2 results expected Jul 31, while Rollins Jul 27. Anticipating updates on drivers (self-help, management changes, cap ex) versus Street views.
DSM-Firmenich AG (DSFIR.AS): 'Buy' upgrade. Earnings beat expected driven by solid organic sales (5-7%) & margin (22-23%) targeting achievable; upside scenario implies c.7% beat to 2027 consensus, re-rating potential towards €140 (from €135). Higher estimate for TTH segment.
Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE): Rating maintained 'Neutral' (Citi's least preferred bank), rating upside (-49%) exceeded by consensus downgrade. Concerns: ECM commentary inconsistent with ratings; views on Investment Banking revenue may be negative.

DSM (DSFIR.AS): Buy (from prior, likely Neutral). Target Price: €140 (up from €135).
DB (DBKGn.DE): Neutral (unchanged). Target Price: €24.40 (up from €22.30).
RTO (RTO.L): Buy (up from prior, likely Neutral). Target Price: £4.70 (down from £5.50).
HLMA (HLMA.L): Neutral (up from prior). Target Price: £31.20 (up from £29.00 on last reported).

European Auto: Investment case difficult due to EU OEMs' struggles, weak earnings outlook (lg impact from tariffs/gas price support), valuation discounts may offer little upside currently.
Nordic Banks: Riksbank policy change affects Swedish banks; note potential interest rate hold and income benefits from trading income despite likely corporate banking weakness. Rank: Nordea (Buy), Danske (Buy), DNB (Neutral), SEB (Neutral), Swedbank (Neutral), SHB (Neutral).
Fixed Income: Caution advised on rates yield curve based on divergent risks (front-end vs back-end / sticky STIR rates). Neutral view on short end steepeners; potential value on German Sub-sovereigns.
Global EM Corporate Credit: KOS: Higher implied leverage via front-loaded supply/doubted credit quality; recommend long 28s for spread compression, targeting ~300bp compression. $52/bbl breakeven.
Germany: Likely Norges Bank will maintain policy rates until later in year if inflation/external conditions allow.