2018年-尼尔森欧洲_FutureOpportunitiesinFMCGE_34页_2mb

Summary of Future Opportunities in FMCG E-Commerce

Core Content

This document provides an in-depth analysis of the future growth potential of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) e-commerce, highlighting key drivers, market trends, and five-year forecasts. It outlines the evolving landscape of e-commerce in the FMCG sector, emphasizing the need for omnichannel strategies and the role of infrastructure, technology, and consumer behavior in shaping success.

Main Points

• E-Commerce Growth: E-commerce is rapidly transforming the global retail market, with global FMCG e-commerce expected to reach US$400 billion by 2022, growing at a faster rate than offline sales. It currently accounts for less than 7% of the global FMCG market, which is valued at US$4 trillion.

• Market Variability: E-commerce growth is uneven across regions. Asia is expected to lead in growth opportunities, with South Korea and China already showing significant adoption (18% and 16% of FMCG market share respectively). In contrast, developed markets like the U.S. and Germany have lower e-commerce penetration due to high availability of physical stores.

• Key Drivers of Success:

  • Foundational Drivers: Include GDP (PPP), bank account penetration, internet penetration, smartphone penetration, and population density.
  • Macro and Social Drivers: Encompass ease of doing business, postal reliability, consumer trust, savings culture, and maturity of FMCG e-commerce players.

Critical Insights

• Success Thresholds:

  • GDP (PPP): At least US$1.8 trillion.
  • Bank Account Penetration: 94% of the population.
  • Internet Penetration: 85% of the population.
  • Smartphone Penetration: 67% of the population.
  • Population Density: More than 135 people per sq. km.
  • Postal Reliability Score: Greater than 72.
  • Savings Culture: Household savings rate greater than 7.8% of net disposable income.
  • Trust: Essential for FMCG, especially for fresh and frozen products.
  • Maturity of FMCG E-Commerce Players: Indicates the presence of established online retailers and platforms.

• Technology and Innovation: Emerging technologies such as predictive personalisation, voice-activated shopping, and mobile-first approaches are accelerating e-commerce growth, especially in developing markets where mobile technology allows for a leapfrog over traditional retail models.

• Consumer Behavior: In developing markets, consumers are more likely to adopt e-commerce due to value-conscious purchasing and convenience. In advanced markets, click-and-collect and alternative delivery solutions are helping to overcome logistical and trust barriers.

• Market Analysis: The study evaluated 34 global markets and found that at least two foundational drivers and two macro/social drivers should be optimal for a market to achieve significant e-commerce success. China has only one optimal foundational driver but still leads due to its high internet and smartphone penetration.

Five-Year Forecast Highlights

• Global Forecast: By 2022, 14 out of 34 markets are expected to see more than double the proportion of FMCG sales through e-commerce.
• Regional Trends:
  • Asia is projected to be the fastest-growing region for FMCG e-commerce.
  • Developing markets are likely to grow twice as fast as developed markets.
  • Western Europe is expected to show moderate growth compared to Asia due to established modern trade infrastructures.

Key Markets and Forecasts

Recommendations for Retailers and Manufacturers

• Adopt Omnichannel Strategies: Future success in FMCG e-commerce depends on integrating online and offline channels.
• Invest in Technology and Innovation: To improve operational efficiency, customer experience, and profitability.
• Focus on Foundational Drivers: Enhance bank account penetration, internet and smartphone access, and postal reliability to unlock growth.
• Leverage Local Market Conditions: Tailor strategies based on consumer trust, savings culture, and regulatory environments.

Conclusion

E-commerce is set to become a major force in the FMCG sector, with significant growth expected in the coming years. The success of FMCG e-commerce is influenced by a combination of foundational, macro, and social drivers, and understanding these will be crucial for companies looking to expand their online presence. As the market evolves, the integration of online and offline commerce will be key to capturing the growing consumer demand for convenience and value.