IMF-新兴市场：前景与挑战（英）-2022.2-22页_509kb

Emerging Markets: Prospects and Challenges Summary

Core Content

This IMF Working Paper analyzes the economic prospects and challenges faced by emerging markets (EMs) in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. It highlights the significant impact of the pandemic on EMs, the policy responses taken, and the lingering vulnerabilities that may constrain future growth and stability.

Main Points

1. Impact of the Pandemic

• The pandemic caused a severe global economic contraction, with EMs experiencing a more pronounced decline than advanced economies (AEs) and low-income countries (LICs).
• EM real GDP fell by an average of 7.4% in 2020, far below pre-pandemic expectations.
• Inflation in EMs surged in 2021, reaching a median of 6.7% year-on-year, compared to about 3% before the pandemic.
• Many EMs still face challenges from the pandemic, including high death rates, slow vaccination progress, and ongoing economic disruptions.

2. Policy Responses

• Fiscal Policy: EMs implemented substantial and timely fiscal support, which helped stabilize output and mitigate the worst effects of the crisis. However, the response was smaller than in AEs, contributing to a larger output decline.
• Monetary Policy: Over 90% of EM central banks reduced policy rates and introduced asset purchase programs to ease financial conditions.
• Prudential Measures: Looser prudential rules were adopted to prevent a wave of bankruptcies and maintain credit flow to the economy.

3. Debt and Vulnerabilities

• Public debt in EMs rose significantly, with the median public debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 60% in 2021, 8 percentage points above pre-pandemic expectations.
• Private non-financial debt also reached record levels, particularly in foreign currency, raising concerns about financial stability.
• EMs are more vulnerable to external shocks due to their reliance on global financial markets and their exposure to capital flows and exchange rate fluctuations.

4. Prospects for Recovery

• The economic recovery in EMs is expected to continue but will be incomplete, uneven, and subject to downside risks.
• Inflationary pressures are expected to remain elevated through 2022, though they may subside in 2023 due to lower commodity prices, reduced supply-demand imbalances, and tighter monetary policy.
• EMs face a trade-off between supporting growth and ensuring debt sustainability, especially as global financial conditions tighten and the US dollar appreciates.

5. External Risks and Policy Implications

• A tightening of global financial conditions and US dollar appreciation could be triggered by increased risk aversion or a reassessment of US monetary policy.
• EMs with high levels of foreign currency debt and weak institutions are particularly vulnerable to such shocks.
• Countries with strong fiscal positions, robust institutions, and deep foreign exchange markets are better equipped to absorb shocks and maintain financial stability.

6. Policy Recommendations

• Deleveraging: Countries with excessive foreign currency debt should encourage private sector deleveraging.
• Monetary Policy: EMs should use exchange rate flexibility to absorb shocks and maintain policy rates to control domestic financial conditions.
• Fiscal Policy: Clear communication of medium-term fiscal consolidation plans and reasserting monetary policy independence is crucial to avoid fears of debt monetization.
• Macroprudential Measures: These should be used to address financial vulnerabilities, particularly in the non-financial sector.
• Precautionary Arrangements: EMs should take advantage of the global financial safety net, including IMF precautionary arrangements and swap lines, to build additional buffers.

Key Information

• Fiscal Support: EM fiscal responses were substantial but smaller than in AEs, leading to a larger output decline.
• Debt Levels: Public and private debt in EMs have reached record levels, increasing financial vulnerabilities.
• Inflation: Inflation in EMs has risen sharply, with some countries exceeding 10%, driven by commodity prices, supply chain issues, and currency depreciation.
• Reserves: EMs have strong international reserves, partly due to the 2021 SDR allocation, which has helped improve liquidity conditions.
• Exchange Rate Vulnerability: EMs are highly sensitive to US dollar appreciation and capital flow reversals, especially those with large unhedged foreign exchange liabilities.
• Policy Constraints: EMs face limited policy space due to high debt, inflationary pressures, and external risks, making it challenging to support growth without compromising stability.

Conclusion

Emerging markets have managed to avoid a widespread economic collapse due to timely policy actions, credible institutions, and emergency financial support. However, they are now facing a complex recovery environment marked by high debt, inflationary pressures, and external risks. Policymakers must carefully manage the withdrawal of support, strengthen macroprudential frameworks, and ensure that inflation expectations remain well-anchored to navigate the challenges ahead.