2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Trinidad_and_Tobago_Selected_Issues_24页_698kb

Summary of Trinidad and Tobago: Selected Issues

I. The Heritage and Stabilization Fund (HSF): Key Issues for the 2012 Review

Core Content

The Heritage and Stabilization Fund (HSF) of Trinidad and Tobago, established in 2007, is a key national asset designed to manage excess energy revenue. It has been created to support both stabilization and heritage objectives, with the latter emphasizing long-term savings for future generations.

Main Points

• HSF Overview:

  • The HSF was formed by replacing the Interim Revenue Stabilization Fund (IRSF) in 2007.
  • As of September 2011, the HSF had assets of US$4.1 billion, representing 18% of GDP.
  • It has performed well despite global financial instability, with an average annual nominal return of 5.27% (slightly above its benchmark of 5.24%).

• Savings and Stabilization Rules:

  • Savings Rule: A minimum of 60% of excess energy revenue is transferred to the HSF.
  • Withdrawal Rule: In case of a shortfall, up to 60% of the shortfall or 25% of the HSF's value (whichever is lower) can be withdrawn.
  • Minimum Balance Rule: The HSF cannot fall below US$1 billion.

• Investment Strategy:

  • The HSF's Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) targets 65% fixed-income securities and 35% equities.
  • A 3-year transition plan was initiated in 2007, but delayed due to the global financial crisis. It was completed in January 2011.
  • The portfolio was initially very liquid but has since diversified.

• Recommendations:

  • Align the HSF’s design with the government's medium-term fiscal strategy to ensure coherence with public finance management and net wealth building.
  • Base sustained transfers on a return to fiscal surpluses to increase net wealth.
  • Amend the HSF Act to clarify that the savings objective is primary while preserving the stabilization function.
  • Increase the minimum balance and consider a percentage-based floor instead of or in addition to an absolute value.
  • Limit annual withdrawals to 10% of the HSF balance and cumulative withdrawals to 25%.
  • Adopt a longer-term investment strategy with a greater focus on savings and risk tolerance.
  • Clarify the calculation of budget energy prices to enhance transparency and accountability.
  • Lengthen the time horizon for setting budget energy prices to reflect a more stable and conservative approach.
  • Change deposit frequency to semi-annual based on year-to-date data, with a lag to allow for finalized information.
  • Engage an external auditor with asset management expertise to improve auditing practices.

II. Developments and Prospects in the Energy Sector

Core Content

The energy sector is a major contributor to Trinidad and Tobago's economy, but it has faced challenges such as declining production, limited exploration, and falling reserves.

Main Points

• Sector Importance:

  • The energy sector accounts for 44% of GDP, 83% of merchandise exports, and 58% of government revenue (2010/11).
  • It is composed of crude oil and natural gas exploration and production (47%), petrochemicals (24%), refining (15%), and services (13%).

• Production Trends:

  • Crude oil production has been in decline since the 1980s.
  • Natural gas production has become the dominant sector, with output (oil equivalent) about eight times that of oil in 2010.

• Export and Utilization:

  • 60% of natural gas is used for LNG exports, while the remaining is used for domestic petrochemicals and power generation.
  • LNG Exports: The country is a significant exporter, with Atlantic LNG operating four LNG processing trains, including the second largest in the world.
  • Natural Gas Price Indices: Prices have been volatile, with significant divergence between international benchmarks and domestic export prices.

• Challenges:

  • Falling production and declining reserves.
  • Limited exploration activity.
  • Global energy market uncertainty and competition from shale gas.

Key Recommendations

• Fiscal Regime Revisions: The government should continue to revise the fiscal regime to support upstream and downstream activities.
• Promote Exploration: Encourage more exploration to counteract the decline in reserves.
• Diversify Energy Sources: Address the risks posed by over-reliance on natural gas and oil by exploring alternative energy options.
• Strengthen Sector Governance: Improve the regulatory environment to attract investment and ensure sustainable development.

Conclusion

The HSF has demonstrated resilience and strong performance, contributing to the country's long-term savings and fiscal stability. However, to ensure its effectiveness in the face of ongoing energy sector challenges and global market volatility, there is a need to refine its rules, improve transparency, and align it more closely with the government's fiscal strategy. The energy sector, while crucial, requires renewed focus on exploration, production, and diversification to sustain its role in the economy.

References

• Board of Governors of the Heritage and Stabilization Fund, Annual Reports, various years.
• Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago, 2007, “The Heritage and Stabilization Fund.” Governor’s Address at the Heritage and Stabilization Fund Forum, Port-of-Spain, May.
• Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago, 2011, “Review of the Heritage and Stabilization Fund,” presentation at the Heritage and Stabilization Fund Forum, Port-of-Spain, September.
• Kunzel, Peter, Yinqui Lu, Iva Petrova, and Jukka Philman, 2010, "Investment Objectives of Sovereign Wealth Funds: A Shifting Paradigm," in Economics of Sovereign Wealth Funds: Issues for Policymakers, eds. Udaibir Das, Adnan Mazarei, and Han Van der Hoorn, International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C.
• Parliament of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago, 2007, Heritage and Stabilization Act. No. 6.
• Truman, M. Edwin, 2010, Sovereign Wealth Funds: Threat or Salvation, Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.
• World Bank Treasury, 2011, “The Heritage and Stabilization Fund of Trinidad and Tobago, Key Considerations for the Review of the Strategic Asset Allocation,” Paper Presented at the Heritage and Stabilization Fund Forum, Port-of-Spain, September.