2017年-世界发展银行全球_Enabling_the_Digital_Revolution_in_Sub-Saharan_Africa___What_Role_for_Policy_Reforms__64页_7mb

报告摘要

AFCW3 Economic Update Summary

Core Content

This report provides an economic update on the Central African Republic (CAR), Chad, Guinea, Mali, and Niger, focusing on the challenges and opportunities in their economic development, especially in the context of the digital revolution and ICT (Information and Communication Technology) growth. It highlights the importance of policy reforms to support inclusive growth, poverty reduction, and the development of digital infrastructure.

Main Countries Covered

Central African Republic (CAR)
Chad
Guinea
Mali
Niger

Key Economic Characteristics

These countries are landlocked, low-income Sahelian economies, heavily reliant on agricultural sectors for revenue and subsistence.
They are economically non-diversified, with significant dependence on natural resources such as gold, uranium, oil, bauxite, and diamonds.
All five countries face challenges of fragility, conflict, and violence, with political instability and regional security issues exacerbating these conditions.
Four of the five countries are members of a monetary union (WAEMU and CEMAC), which influences their macroeconomic policies.
They are all post-Ebola recovery countries, with Mali and Guinea having officially ended the outbreak in 2015.

Economic Outlook

The economic outlook for 2017 is positive, with growth rates expected to be 4-6% for all countries except Chad.
Inflation rates are downward-trending, well below the 3% target set by regional monetary institutions, except for the Central African Republic and Guinea.
The digital revolution is seen as a critical driver for future growth, poverty reduction, and pro-poor social protection.

ICT Development Challenges

Affordable universal access to ICT services remains a major challenge, with only 38% of the population having access to voice and text services in AFCW3 countries, compared to 43% in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and 66% globally.
Mobile broadband penetration is low, with only 7% of the population in AFCW3 having access to mobile broadband (3G) compared to 11% in SSA.
Internet usage is even lower, with only 5% of the population in AFCW3 countries being internet users, compared to 22% in SSA.
Affordability is a key issue, with mobile services costing up to 50% of GNI in CEMAC and 30% in ECOWAS.
High taxation and complex regulations are major barriers to ICT development and industry competitiveness.
State-owned operators are often distressed, and universal access and service policies are ineffectively implemented.

Mobile Money

Mobile money services are mainstream in all AFCW3 countries, with different models in place:
- Banking model: e-money issuance by credit or microfinance institutions.
- Non-bank model: e-money issued by Electronic Money Institutions (EMI).
In CAR and Chad, mobile money services must be offered in partnership with banks, and banks can partner with only one mobile operator.
In Mali, mobile money has seen rapid uptake, with 2.7 million users by the end of 2015, indicating high growth potential.
Niger and Guinea are still in the early stages of mobile money adoption.

Policy Recommendations

Reform regulatory frameworks to reduce complexity and taxation.
Improve affordability of mobile services.
Enhance competition in the ICT sector to avoid the emergence of cozy oligopolies.
Strengthen universal access and service policies to ensure inclusive growth.
Support development strategies that leverage ICT for economic diversification and poverty reduction.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the importance of the digital revolution in transforming economies and improving livelihoods, especially in rural and isolated areas. It underscores the need for policy reforms to remove barriers to ICT development and ensure affordability, access, and competitiveness in the sector. These reforms are essential to foster inclusive growth, reduce poverty, and support the development of pro-poor social protection systems.