限制竞争对5G网络设备的经济影响（英）-牛津经济研究院-2020.7-100页_4mb

5G Infrastructure and Economic Impact in Europe

Core Content

The document outlines the economic implications of restricting competition in the 5G infrastructure market in Europe, emphasizing the role of 5G in economic recovery and technological advancement post-pandemic.

Main Points

1. The 5G Opportunity

• Consumer and Business Benefits: 5G offers faster data transmission, more reliable connectivity, and new use cases that can boost productivity and create new income streams.
• Role in Recovery: As European economies recover from the coronavirus crisis, 5G infrastructure is expected to play a key role in stimulating economic growth and job creation.
• Global Trends: GSMA predicted 1.2 billion 5G mobile users globally by 2025, with network coverage reaching a third of the world's population.

2. 5G Rollout in Europe

• Current Status: As of May 2020, several European countries had launched 5G services, including Austria, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Ireland, Romania, Switzerland, and the UK.
• Impact of Pandemic: The coronavirus pandemic has delayed 5G rollout due to restrictions on spectrum auctions and reduced investment by telecom operators.
• EU Initiatives: The European Commission has supported 5G development through the Horizon 2020 Programme with €700 million in public funding, expected to be amplified by industry investment.

3. Restricting 5G Competition

• Key Players: Ericsson, Huawei, and Nokia are the main suppliers in the RAN market, with Huawei having the largest market share in Europe.
• Political Restrictions: The US and Australia have restricted Huawei's participation in 5G contracts, and other countries are considering similar actions.
• Economic Consequences: Restricting a major player like Huawei could lead to increased investment costs, slower network rollout, and reduced GDP growth.

4. Economic Impact of Restricting Competition

• Cost Estimates: In the central cost scenario, restricting competition in the 5G market would add an estimated €3 billion annually to investment costs in 31 European countries.
• GDP Loss: By 2035, this restriction could lead to a permanent loss of €40 billion in GDP across Europe.
• Country-Specific Effects:
  • Iceland: €3 million/year increase in costs, 56 million fewer people covered by 2023, €13 million GDP loss.
  • Germany: €479 million/year increase in costs, €7.3 billion GDP loss.
  • France: €400 million/year increase in costs, €7.3 billion GDP loss.
  • EU28: €56.6 billion in 5G investment costs, €141.8 billion in direct multiplier effects, 2.39 million jobs created.

Key Information

5G Benefits

• Faster Connection Speeds: 5G provides Enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB), supporting AR and VR applications.
• Greater Bandwidth: 5G enables Massive Machine-type Communications (mMTC), crucial for the Internet of Things (IoT).
• Quicker Response Times: 5G supports Ultra-reliable and Low Latency Communications (URLLC), enabling mission-critical applications in transport, healthcare, and logistics.

5G Applications by Sector

• Health and Social Care: Remote health monitoring.
• Automotive: Connected smart cars, autonomous vehicles, and media streaming.
• Smart Cities: Street lighting, parking monitoring, rubbish collection, and environmental monitoring.
• Utilities: Smart meters and thermostats.
• Manufacturing: Production line automation.
• Logistics: Connected containers for tracking temperature and location.

Market Structure

• Global Players: Ericsson, Huawei, and Nokia dominate the RAN market, with Huawei holding a 31% share in Europe.
• Regional Differences: Huawei has a smaller presence in North America, while ZTE has a presence in Asia-Pacific.
• Regulatory Environment: The EU has a highly regulated telecoms market, with various directives and frameworks aimed at cybersecurity and network security.

Modelling Approach

• Scenarios: Three scenarios were modelled—low cost, central cost, and high cost—to reflect uncertainty in the economic impact of competition restrictions.
• Central Scenario: An estimated €3 billion annual increase in investment costs, 56 million fewer people covered by 2023, and €40 billion GDP loss by 2035.
• Uncertainty Consideration: The model does not account for potential costs of replacing existing Huawei equipment, which could exacerbate the economic impact.

Conclusion

The document highlights the critical role of 5G in driving economic recovery and innovation in Europe. Restricting competition in the 5G infrastructure market, particularly by excluding Huawei, could have significant negative economic consequences, including increased costs, delayed network rollout, and reduced GDP growth. The EU's regulatory framework aims to balance security concerns with economic and industrial priorities, but the impact of these restrictions remains a major concern for stakeholders.