2022-03-17-牛津经济研究院-US_Recovery_Tracker_offers_optimism_despite_several_headwinds_2页_333kb

US Recovery Tracker Performance Analysis

Based on data from early March 2022:

• National Recovery: The US Recovery Tracker has surpassed 99.8, nearing (but technically returning to) its pre-pandemic baseline, with increases reported across most components except financial conditions (inflation/geopolitics concerns tightening lending) driving this rise primarily due to improved health conditions, mobility (above pre-pandemic levels), and better employment conditions at a 12-week high supported by demand increase. However, despite several headwinds (geopolitical turmoil, high inflation, tighter financial conditions), demand shows resilience despite supply-chain issues.

• Regional Performance: Nearly all states (gained led by East and Midwest regions, particularly Ohio and Michigan) showed stronger than pre-pandemic readings; Texas/Oklahoma gained the most in the Southwest & Mountains; Tennessee advanced the most in the South; and the California and Hawaii saw slight pullbacks or stood at their lowest level in three months.

• Key Sectors: Health conditions improved significantly, lifting mobility and enabling in-person services; production and demand increased modestly.

• Decision: The use of the US Recovery Tracker will be discontinued now that the national index reached within its pre-pandemic range due to COVID's prolonged impact.

Summary

The US economic recovery, as measured by the Oxford Economics Tracker and its regional components, reached a level near its pre-pandemic baseline for the first time in several months (and at a record since 2020), driven by notable improvements in health conditions and mobility across the country. While supply chain issues and high inflation remain concerns, parts of the economy using demand showed strength. However, financial conditions tightened, and though inflation concerns are prominent, strength was demonstrated in employment and the health sector. The rollout of the COVID vaccine and the loosening of restrictions in response to declining infection rates gave positive momentum, supported by regional analysis led by the East.