2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Suriname_Selected_Issues_31页_1mb

Summary of the IMF Report on Suriname

Core Content

This IMF report, prepared in November 2018, provides an analysis of Suriname's fiscal framework and explores options for an alternative fiscal anchor to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability and support development. The report is part of the periodic consultation with Suriname and highlights the challenges and opportunities arising from the country's natural resource wealth, particularly gold and oil.

Main Issues and Objectives

• Natural Resource Wealth: Suriname's natural resource wealth includes gold, oil, and bauxite. The opening of the Merian gold mine in 2016 and the addition of the Saramacca gold field to Rosebel increased gold production. Offshore oil exploration is also ongoing, with new production sharing contracts signed in 2018.
• Fiscal Challenges: The current fiscal framework faces challenges related to:
  • Consumption vs. savings choices
  • Expenditure composition and targeting
  • Asset-liability management
  • Ensuring long-term fiscal sustainability
• Objective: To develop a robust fiscal anchor that promotes long-term sustainability while supporting growth and development, considering the relatively short resource horizon.

Key Fiscal Frameworks and Policies

1. Government Debt Act (DA)

• Sets a debt ceiling of 60% of GDP.
• Includes escape clauses to allow temporary debt increases in case of GDP decline or exchange rate depreciation.
• Requires National Assembly approval for debt exceeding the ceiling.
• Provides a borrowing limit of 6.5% of GDP in the first year and 5% in the following four years.
• The DA was amended in February 2017 to introduce flexibility and prudence.

2. Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Non-Monetary Financing

• Signed in May 2016 to prevent the central bank from financing the fiscal deficit.
• Prohibits overdraft facilities, guarantees, and the purchase of Treasury Bills by the central bank.

3. Savings and Stabilization Fund (SSF)

• Established in June 2017 to manage natural resource revenues.
• Rules for accumulation and withdrawal of funds are based on the difference between actual and budgeted mining revenues.
• No withdrawals are permitted until 2022.
• Withdrawals are allowed when actual mining revenues are less than 25% of the budgeted revenue, with a maximum withdrawal of 15% of SSF assets.
• SSF is expected to transfer 25% of asset management income to the Treasury annually.

4. Medium-Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF)

• An integrated analytical framework for projecting and calibrating fiscal stance and sustainability.
• Used by the Ministry of Finance to assess fiscal and debt sustainability.
• Incorporates government finance statistics (GFS) methodology and data quality.
• Helps in evaluating the fiscal policy stance and macroeconomic implications of investment and saving scenarios.

Options for an Alternative Fiscal Anchor

• The report suggests transitioning to a fiscal anchor based on the non-resource primary balance (NRPB), which allows better assessment of the underlying fiscal stance and reduces procyclicality.
• The permanent income framework (PIF) is proposed as a baseline, where the NRPB should be set to reflect the real return on accumulated financial wealth and the implicit return on future resource revenues.
• The modified permanent income framework (MPIF) allows for frontloading investment, which can be justified if it strengthens growth and non-resource revenues.
• The fiscal sustainability framework (FSF) considers the growth-enhancing effects of public investment and suggests adjusting NRPB to ensure long-term sustainability.

Key Findings

• The current NRPB is around 12.5% of GDP in 2018, but long-term sustainability benchmarks suggest it should be around -1.25% of GDP.
• The adjustment gap is estimated at about 11% of GDP.
• A transition period is needed to align the current fiscal stance with the long-term sustainability benchmark.
• The SSF is crucial for managing volatility and ensuring savings for future generations.
• The report emphasizes the need for institutionalizing fiscal rules and improving expenditure targeting towards growth-enhancing investments.
• It also highlights the importance of reducing dependency on public spending and implementing supply-side reforms to improve the non-mining economy.

Policy Implications

• A credible medium-term fiscal anchor based on NRPB is recommended to ensure sustainability and reduce procyclicality.
• The transition to a new fiscal anchor requires careful policy design and implementation.
• Expenditure composition should be reconfigured to prioritize growth-enhancing investments.
• Institutional coordination and transparency are essential, with participation in the Extractive Industry Transparency Initiative (EITI) being a key step.
• Fiscal policy should be aligned with asset and liability management to avoid excessive borrowing and ensure repayment of costly public debt.
• The report underscores the need for continued analysis and reform to support long-term economic growth and improved income distribution.