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Goldman Sachs Analysis: US Spirits Market Performance (May 2025)

Market Overview

• US Spirits market sales declined -0.3% (excluding RTDs) and -3.8% (including RTDs) in the 4-week period ending May 17th, with volume down -4.1% and price/mix improving +0.8%. RTDs contributed +18% volume growth, while hard seltzer saw -8.6% decline and beer fell -3.4%. Spirits volumes showed resilience during economic downturns, gaining share from beer over the past 20 years due to competitive pricing, marketing rebounds, and urban consumer confidence.

• Key trends: Tequila share increased while vodka and whiskey declined since 2016; top 5 players in the US market (Diageo, Sazerac, Beam Suntory, Heaven Hill, Bacardi) account for ~50% of volumes. Nielsen covers ~20% of the market, while NABCA tracks ~23% with broader industry coverage including on-trade and liquor stores.

Company-Specific Analysis

Diageo

• Sales declined -3.7% in May with -7.5% volume loss (excluding RTDs), continuing share loss in the US. Crown Royal flat with +131.8% growth for Blackberry lapping easier comps; Don Julio up +20%, Casamigos down -13.9%. Share loss due to competition, driven by Smirnoff (-7.2%), Ketel One (-7.2%), and Ciroc (-27.8%) in vodka.
• Sell-rated with price target {target not fully specified}; risks include US growth weakness, FX impacts, and share erosion.

Pernod

-Volumes ex RTDs declined -5.1% with sales off -6.4% (+1.6% price/mix). Jameson volumes improved +0.2%, maintaining share despite tough comps; Absolut down -4.6%, Malibu and Skrewball weak. Shares lost due to slower category growth compared to Diageo.

• Buy-rated with price target €120; risks include consumer weakness in the US, macro headwinds in China/India, tariff escalation, and FX volatility.

Campari

-Volumes including RTDs down -1.8%, with Espolon sales turning negative (-1.9%) despite similar comps, while Aperol grew +4.7%. Skyy remained negative, Wild Turkey improved +4.4%. Underperformed market due to tougher comps.

• Neutral-rated with price target €7.00; risks include organic growth uncertainties, margin pressures from input costs, and potential dilution from past acquisitions.

Remy Cointreau

-Volume down -12.2% in May, sales -15.0%, with Remy Martin and Hennessy improving sequentially but overall Cognac market weak. Shares lost share amid tough comps.

• Buy-rated with price target €65; risks include Cognac tariffs, US consumer demand issues, destocking, FX volatility, and competition.

Key Insights

• Overall Spirits volumes resilient during downturns, with share gains from beer/gin. US is critical for all firms, contributing ~20-36% of revenue for major players.
• Valuation driven by DCF/multiple blends; key risks include macro fluctuations, competitive pressures, and currency impacts across regions.
• Disclosure note: Analysts may have conflicts, and reports are not investment advice; disclaimer per FINRA/SEC rules.