2023-05-08-IMF-几内亚的矿业收入和包容性发展（英）_51页_1mb

Mining Revenue and Inclusive Development in Guinea
Authors: Alejandro Badel and Rachel Fredman Lyngaas

Abstract:
This paper analyzes the potential benefits of increasing taxation in Guinea's extractive sector using a multi-sector macro-inequality model. The study models three development policies—education investment, inclusive infrastructure, and cash transfers—to assess their impacts on GDP, poverty, inequality, and sectoral reallocation, with revenue mobilized from mining taxes.

Key Findings:

1. Model and Methods: A general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents is calibrated to match Guinea's economy, incorporating a Cobb-Douglas production function for the mining sector and elasticity-based trade sectors.
2. Revenue Potential: Mining revenues can generate substantial fiscal space; however, a calibrated Laffer Curve shows potential revenue loss at higher tax rates (peaking at ~70%).
3. Policy Synergies:
   • Education + Infrastructure are complementary: combined reforms boost GDP more than individual policies.
   • Education policy complements infrastructure by encouraging formalization and increasing food demand, reducing poverty (e.g., from ~40% to <25% with combined transfers).
   • Infrastructure-only policies yield minimal poverty/income gains but can be effective with education.
4. Fiscal Space: Additional revenues (5-7% of GDP peak) can be rebated as lump-sum transfers, reducing poverty more effectively than targeted transfers due to simplicity.
5. Distributional Effects: Policies reduce inequality and formalize labor markets (e.g., urban formalization increases, rural informalization decreases).

Conclusions:
Combined investments in education, infrastructure, and social transfers can transform mining revenues into inclusive growth. Policymakers should prioritize balanced resource allocation across these policy areas for sustainable poverty reduction and economic development in Guinea.