高盛-欧洲经济展望2018：欧洲展望：良好的增长，微通胀与持续的政策（英文）-20171116-20页_1mb

European Economics Analyst Summary

Core Content

Goldman Sachs' 2018 macroeconomic outlook for Europe highlights stronger-than-expected growth and persistently low inflation, with central banks maintaining accommodative policies. The analysis suggests that while the European economy is performing well, inflation remains subdued, and there are growing concerns about financial stability risks due to prolonged monetary easing.

Main Points

Growth Outlook

• Euro area: Growth has outperformed forecasts in 2017 due to strong domestic consumption and global demand. However, the growth acceleration is expected to slow from mid-2018 onwards, with a gradual decline in quarterly growth to +0.4% qoq by the end of the year. Annual growth is forecasted at 2.3% in 2017, 2.2% in 2018, and 1.8% in 2019, with a stable +1.6% yoy in 2020 and +1.5% yoy in 2021.
• Germany: Growth is expected to remain strong at +2.5% yoy in 2018 and +2.0% yoy in 2019, with inflation at 1.4% yoy in 2018 and 1.5% yoy in 2019.
• France: Growth is projected to rise to +2.0% yoy in 2018, with inflation at +1.3% yoy.
• Italy: Growth is expected to slow to +1.1% yoy in 2018, with inflation at +0.7% yoy.
• Spain: Growth is forecasted to remain robust at +2.5% yoy in 2018, with inflation at +1.3% yoy.
• UK: Growth remains slightly below trend until mid-2018, but is expected to improve with a Brexit transition deal. Inflation is expected to stay above target for several years.
• Sweden: Growth is upgraded to +3.2% yoy in 2018, with inflation at +1.9% yoy.
• Norway: Growth is forecasted at +2.4% yoy in 2018, with inflation rising to +2.1% yoy.
• Denmark: Growth is expected to moderate to +1.9% yoy in 2018, with inflation at +1.9% yoy.
• Switzerland: Growth is projected to rise from +0.6% yoy in 2017 to +1.7% yoy in 2018, with inflation at +0.5% yoy in 2018 and +0.8% yoy in 2019.

Inflation Outlook

• Euro area: Inflation is expected to remain substantially below target, with headline inflation at 1.5% yoy in 2017 and 1.2% yoy in 2018, and core inflation at 1.0% yoy in 2017 and 1.0% yoy in 2018.
• Germany: Inflation is expected to stay moderate, with headline inflation at 1.4% yoy in 2018 and 1.5% yoy in 2019.
• UK: Inflation is expected to remain above target for several years, settling at +2.0% yoy in 2020.
• Sweden: CPIF inflation is forecasted to fall to +1.9% yoy in 2018, but rise to +2.1% yoy in 2019 and 2020.
• Norway: Inflation is expected to rise to +2.1% yoy in 2018, then increase to +2.3% yoy in 2019 and 2020.
• Denmark: Inflation is projected to rise to +1.9% yoy in 2018, then increase to +2.0% yoy in 2020.
• Switzerland: Inflation is expected to rise to +0.8% yoy in 2019 and +1.1% yoy in 2020.

Policy Outlook

• ECB: The ECB is expected to keep policy rates on hold until H2 2019, with a 20bp deposit rate hike in Q4 2019 as the modal forecast. The ECB will use its asset purchase programme (APP) primarily for forward guidance, with purchases continuing until end-2018. The ECB will maintain a substantial market presence via reinvestment of maturing bonds.
• UK (BoE): The Bank of England is expected to hike rates more than two times over the next three years.
• Financial Stability: There are growing concerns about financial imbalances due to prolonged accommodative monetary policy. The debate on the role of monetary policy in financial stability is likely to re-emerge, with hawkish risks to policy forecasts in the Euro area core and Scandinavia.
• Macroprudential Policy: Macroprudential tools are expected to be used more actively to address financial risks, especially in Scandinavia and Switzerland, where they are not controlled by central banks. However, their effectiveness is questioned, and coordination remains a challenge.

Key Information

• The Euro area and Germany have shown above-trend growth and moderate inflation, with labour market flexibility playing a key role in containing wage pressures.
• Brexit is a key uncertainty for the UK, with a transition deal expected to improve growth prospects.
• Scandinavia faces advanced economic imbalances, with Sweden experiencing a significant positive output gap.
• The ECB is expected to remain dovish, with a gradual tightening of policy rates in 2019.
• Financial stability is becoming a more prominent concern for policymakers, especially in light of low inflation and extended monetary accommodation.
• Macroprudential policy is increasingly seen as a necessary tool to address financial risks, but its effectiveness and coordination remain challenging.

Conviction Views

1. Euro area core inflation will remain below target over the forecast horizon.
2. The ECB will keep policy rates on hold until H2 2019.
3. The BoE will hike rates more than two times over the coming three years.
4. A Brexit transition deal will be reached, but on the EU-27's terms.