凯度-赢得零售全渠道：在新发明中找到增长（英文）-2018.6-16页-6mb

Summary of "WINNING MNICHANNEL: FINDING GROWTH IN REINVENTED RETAIL" (Issue 2 | June 2018)

Core Content

The document explores the challenges and opportunities for growth in the Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) industry, emphasizing the need for brands and retailers to adapt to evolving consumer behavior and market dynamics. It highlights the role of e-commerce and discounters as the fastest-growing channels, alongside the importance of local brands and omnichannel strategies.

Main Points

• FMCG Growth is Slowing:

  • Global FMCG value growth in 2017 was only 1.9%, far below GDP growth of 4%.
  • The long-term trend shows a decline in growth since 2012, with many regions experiencing zero or near-zero growth.

• Key Growth Channels:

  • E-commerce: Grew by 15% in 2017, becoming a significant force in FMCG.
  • Discounters: Continued to grow, with 5.2% annual growth.
  • Cash-and-Carry (C&C): Also grew, with a 4.4% increase.
  • These channels are reshaping the FMCG landscape by emphasizing value for money, convenience, and proximity.

• Global Market Trends:

  • Asia: Led the growth with 4.3%, driven by local brands and e-commerce.
  • Latin America: Grew by 7.3%, with a focus on convenience and value.
  • Western Europe: Grew by 2.2%, though this was skewed by inflation and Brexit effects.
  • USA: Grew by 0.5%, with a mature market and increasing influence of discounters and private label.

• Consumer Behavior Shifts:

  • Shoppers are making fewer trips (from 185 in 2015 to 178 in 2017).
  • There is a shift from take-home to out-of-home (OOH) consumption, especially for non-alcoholic drinks and snacks.
  • Health-conscious trends are driving demand for fresh produce and organic products, with notable growth in categories like avocados, berries, and fresh seafood.

• Local Brands are Gaining Ground:

  • Local brands are outperforming global ones in many regions.
  • Every 0.1% share gain by local brands is worth $500 million for the global FMCG industry.
  • In Asia, local brands are bridging the gap between modern and traditional retail, acting as community hubs.

• Millennials and Targeting:

  • Millennials are not the primary drivers of FMCG growth, with 35 years old and under accounting for just 14% of total spend.
  • However, they are key targets for e-commerce and discounters.
  • In Western Europe, 35-44-year-olds are the best targets for discounters.

• Omnichannel Integration:

  • The integration of online and offline is crucial for future growth.
  • Examples include Amazon’s integration with Whole Foods, Walmart’s partnership with Flipkart, and Alibaba’s alliance with Sun Art.
  • Only 25% of the global population made an FMCG purchase online in 2017.

• Emerging Markets:

  • India, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, and Africa present significant growth opportunities due to their large potential shopper base.
  • In Mexico, Walmart introduced an omnichannel store to meet demand.
  • In Indonesia, consumers have created mobile purchase journeys through apps and messaging platforms.

• Challenges for Traditional Retailers:

  • Traditional hypermarkets and supermarkets are facing cannibalization from digital pure-players and discounters.
  • Brands must retrain sales forces and retool marketing teams to compete in digital spaces.
  • The C&C model requires a specific assortment and aggressive pricing strategies.

Key Information

• Global FMCG Growth: 1.9% in 2017, slower than GDP growth.

• E-commerce Growth: 15% in 2017, but growth has slowed to 6% in the UK and 29% in the US.

• Discounters: Growing at 5.2%, with Poland leading at 28.5% share.

• Cash-and-Carry: Grew to 8.2% in Latin America, outperforming discounters.

• Local Brands: Gaining share in many regions, especially in Asia and Latin America.

• OOH Consumption: Accounts for 40% of non-alcoholic drinks and snacks in analyzed markets.

• Health and Beauty: Experienced the most significant growth in online sales, rising from 6.9% in 2015 to 10.5% in 2017.

• Future Growth Forecast (2020):

  • Cash-and-Carry: 2.1%
  • Convenience: 5.8%
  • Discounters: 6%
  • E-commerce: 7.2%

• Market Fragmentation:

  • In Africa and the Middle East, FMCG markets remain fragmented, with informal retailers playing a major role.
  • In Saudi Arabia, external factors like oil prices and new laws are affecting consumer behavior.

• Strategic Recommendations:

  • Brands and retailers should focus on new markets and omnichannel strategies.
  • Emphasize local partnerships, value for money, and convenience.
  • Adapt to changing consumer preferences, such as health-conscious choices and mobile-first shopping.