2025-06-09-花旗集团-自由市场（MELI）_自由市场（MELI.O）_对MELI新免运费门槛的更多看法——略为乐观_但仍预期毛利率面临压力_14页_419kb

Citi Research maintains a Buy recommendation on MercadoLibre (MELI.O), slightly more positive on the long-term repercussions of its new R$19 free shipping threshold policy but still cautious on short-term Gross Margin (GM) pressure. The policy, permanent and shifted to "slow" shipping, aims to incentivize price-sensitive buyers while potentially saving costs on COGS, viewed as a strategic move to drive volume growth and user recurrence rather than just reactive competition. Financially, Citi estimates a potential 160bps decrease in GM and 2.7% impact on 2026 EBIT, with mitigating factors like possible volume increases. Key risks include earnings volatility, potential GM pressure in Brazil, and competition, while the valuation targets $3,000 with a 22.5% expected return.