IMF-撒哈拉以南非洲大型国有企业的财务绩效和宏观财务影响（英）-2022.3-32页_1mb

Summary of "The Financial Performance and Macrofinancial Implications of Large State-Owned Enterprises in Sub-Saharan Africa"

Core Content

This IMF Working Paper analyzes the financial performance and macrofinancial implications of large state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The study compiles a comprehensive dataset of nearly 300 SOEs in SSA, focusing on those under majority public ownership, and examines their profitability, liquidity, and leverage. It also investigates the sustainability of SOE debt and the broader macroeconomic and financial impacts of their performance.

Main Findings

Financial Performance

• Profitability: 40% of SOEs in the full sample are unprofitable, and larger firms are more likely to be unprofitable.
• Liquidity: Larger firms tend to be less liquid. In the core sample, half of the SOEs show liquidity ratios below the threshold.
• Leverage: Larger firms are more leveraged. In the core sample, over 70% of SOEs have a debt-to-EBITDA ratio greater than 5, indicating overindebtedness.
• Debt-to-EBITDA Ratio: The ratio is used as a key indicator of debt sustainability. A threshold of 5 times EBITDA is generally considered unsustainable, and many SOEs exceed this threshold.

Econometric Analysis

• Determinants of Debt Sustainability: The study finds that SOE debt sustainability is significantly influenced by profitability and liquidity, but not by macroeconomic factors.
• Governance Variables: Governance indicators, such as political stability, government effectiveness, and control of corruption, have a notable impact on SOE performance.
• Sensitivity Checks: Results remain robust even when alternative variable definitions are used.
• Income and Resource Status: SOE performance varies by income level and resource intensity, with resource-intensive firms facing more challenges.

Macrofinancial Implications

• Bank Soundness: Weak SOE performance can negatively impact bank soundness through delinquent loan exposures.
• Case Studies: Several country examples illustrate how SOE overindebtedness and poor financial performance lead to domestic arrears and defaults on bank loans.
• Fiscal Burden: SOEs often impose a fiscal burden on the government due to their losses and the need for subsidies and recapitalizations.

Key Variables and Metrics

• Return on Assets (ROA): A measure of profitability, with about 40% of SOEs showing negative ROA.
• Liquidity Ratio: Defined as current assets to current liabilities. Most firms in the core sample have a ratio above 1, but half show ratios below the threshold.
• Leverage Ratio: Measured as debt-to-assets ratio. Over 70% of SOEs in the core sample have a leverage ratio indicating overindebtedness.
• Debt-to-EBITDA Ratio (DTE): Used to assess debt sustainability. The threshold of 5 times EBITDA is used as a reference point, with 72% of SOEs in the core sample exceeding it.

Methodology and Data

• Data Collection: The dataset includes financial information from 35 out of 45 SSA countries. Data was obtained from SOE reports or country authorities.
• Core Sample: To reduce bias, a core sample with up to three largest SOEs per country was created.
• Variables: The study includes firm-level variables (ROA, liquidity, leverage, DTE) and macroeconomic and governance variables (RGDPG, REER, CURACT, PSCRED, FISBAL, INFLTN, POLSTB, GOVEFF, REGQTY, RLAW, CORRPT).
• Correlation Analysis: Strong correlations are observed between profitability and liquidity, as well as between leverage and profitability. Leverage and liquidity are moderately to strongly negatively correlated.

Limitations and Considerations

• Data Availability: The dataset is somewhat unbalanced, with limited financial data in some countries.
• Indicator Selection: Only a restricted set of financial performance indicators were used, and other efficiency-oriented indicators could not be consistently compiled.
• Exclusions: SOEs in the financial sector were excluded due to their high leverage and different financial structure.
• Governance and External Factors: The study acknowledges that external factors such as government subsidies and preferential treatment were not fully accounted for due to data limitations.

Conclusion

The paper highlights the significant financial challenges faced by SOEs in SSA, particularly their overindebtedness and lack of profitability. It emphasizes the need for improved governance and financial oversight to ensure the sustainability of SOE debt and their positive contribution to the economy. The study also underscores the macrofinancial risks associated with poor SOE performance, which can affect the stability of the banking sector and public finances.