2025-05-29-Bernstein-Grenergy可再生能源公司（GRE）_Grenergy2027年战略计划_储能布局_15页_2mb

报告摘要

Grenergy Renovables 2025-2027 Strategy Update: Focus on Battery Energy Storage

"The Storage Play" Initiative: Grenergy unveiled a 2025-2027 strategy update focusing on battery energy storage systems (BESS), including hybridization with solar PV and standalone batteries, as part of its growth plan.
Key Strategic Targets:
- Target €450-500 million run-rate energy EBITDA by 2027 (up from current projections).
- Achieve €420 million EBITDA (including €250-300 million from energy) by 2027, exceeding Bernstein and Bloomberg estimates.
- Build 4.4 GW solar and 18.8 GWh BESS capacity by 2027 for €3.5 billion, equivalent to adding 0.7 GW solar and 5.1 GWh BESS annually, emphasizing a shift from the previous 2023-2026 plan (5 GW solar, 4.1 GWh BESS).
Platform and Project Updates:
- Central Oasis: A new platform in central Chile focusing on PV-BESS hybridization with a 1.1 GW solar and 3.8 GWh BESS capacity, targeting investment of ~€900 million.
- Greenbox: European standalone BESS strategy aiming for 3 GWh BESS capacity in six countries (Spain, Italy, UK, Poland, Germany, Romania), including a 150 MW/600 MWh BESS project in Spain.
Financing Plan:
- Fund €3.5 billion capital expenditure (capex) through €0.8 billion asset rotation (70-80% project debt, with €0.2 billion already closed) and project finance, with no capital increase needed.
- Maintain net debt to EBITDA below 7.0x by 2027.
Investment Implications and Rating:
- Bernstein reiterates Market-Perform rating with €44.10 EUR price target.
- Financial projections show strong EBITDA growth (from €210 million in 2026e), with IRR targets above 10% for new projects, highlighting focus on value creation through storage assets.