20220215-USDA-USDA_Sugar_and_Sweeteners_Outlook_2022.2.15_22页_1mb

报告摘要

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: February 2022 Summary

Core Content

The February 2022 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report provides an overview of U.S. and Mexican sugar supply, use, and import projections for the 2021/22 fiscal year. The report highlights a record-high U.S. sugar production, a slight reduction in imports, and a rising stocks-to-use ratio. It also discusses the impact of weather conditions and logistical challenges on sugar supply and delivery.

U.S. Sugar Outlook

Supply and Production

Total U.S. sugar supply increased to 14.158 million STRV, up from 14.113 million STRV in January 2022.
Beet sugar production remained at 5.401 million STRV, slightly above the 2017/18 record of 5.279 million STRV.
Cane sugar production increased to 4.041 million STRV, driven by Louisiana, which saw a rise of 49,170 STRV to 1.906 million STRV.
If realized, total domestic sugar production would be a record high of 9.442 million STRV.

Imports

Total U.S. projected imports for 2021/22 were reduced by 3,736 STRV to 3.012 million STRV, the lowest since 2008/09.
WTO raw sugar TRQ imports and high-tier raw sugar imports entered strongly between October and January, with 56% of the projected 1.547 million STRV already imported.
High-tier sugar imports for 2021/22 reached 113,336 STRV, or 76% of the forecasted 150,000 STRV, with Brazil being the largest contributor.
Non-program imports are expected to remain steady, with 1.215 million STRV reported through January.

Use and Deliveries

Total sugar use remained unchanged at 12.340 million STRV.
Total deliveries for the 2021/22 fiscal year were 12.305 million STRV, with 12.200 million STRV for domestic food and beverage use.
Beet sugar processors delivered 6.8% more than the same period in 2020, while cane refiners delivered 1.9% less.
Non-reporter, direct consumption imports through December were 319,000 STRV, close to the 2007/08 record of 339,000 STRV.

Ending Stocks

Ending stocks increased by 45,434 STRV to 1.818 million STRV, reflecting a stocks-to-use ratio of 14.7%, up from 14.4%.
Domestic food and beverage use accounted for 12.200 million STRV.
Sugar-containing products re-export program and polyhydric alcohol, feed, other alcohol accounted for 80,000 STRV in total.

Mexican Sugar Outlook

Supply and Use

Mexican sugar supply saw minor changes, with ending stocks increasing slightly to 919,186 metric tons, which is in line with the government's target of 2.5 months of domestic consumption.
The U.S. Department of Commerce will determine Mexico's final Export Limit based on the March WASDE report.

Key Factors Affecting Supply and Demand

Louisiana's cane sugar production was the main driver of the increase in U.S. sugar supply, with a strong finish to the harvest season after a slow start due to Hurricane Ida.
Weather conditions have been favorable in the Red River Valley and Great Lakes regions, allowing sugarcane to mature and accumulate sucrose.
Freeze events in Florida during the harvest season may impact sugarcane yields and sugar recovery rates, though the effects are not yet fully reflected in USDA reports.
Logistical issues such as labor shortages, packing material scarcity, and high freight costs have affected delivery schedules and prices.
High-tier raw sugar imports have increased due to tight supply and higher prices.

Price Trends

U.S. sugar prices for raw and refined sugar remain elevated, with raw sugar futures at 35 cents per pound through November 2022.
Wholesale refined cane sugar in the Northeast is quoted at 52 cents per pound, and refined beet sugar in the Midwest at 41-42 cents per pound, compared to 42 and 36.5 cents in the same period last year.
Producer Price Indices (PPI) indicate increased delivered costs due to tight supply and logistics.
December PPI for refined cane sugar is near the peak level reached in July 2011.

Conclusion

The U.S. sugar market is experiencing increased production and lower imports, with ending stocks rising and the stocks-to-use ratio improving. Louisiana has been a key contributor to the increase in cane sugar production. Logistical challenges and weather conditions have influenced supply and delivery, while high prices and tight supply continue to impact market dynamics. The Mexican sugar market shows minor changes, with ending stocks aligning with government targets. The U.S. Department of Commerce will set Mexico's final Export Limit based on March WASDE data.