2025-05-26-Jefferies-拉丁美洲_日报_15页_287kb

报告摘要

Date: May 26, 2025
Focus: Brazil fiscal policy, company analyses, and market outlooks. Jefferies Advisory provided on key investments.

IOF Tax: Government proposed a >50% increase, softened due to backlash. Jefferies advises against raising taxes, noting it prioritizes revenue cuts instead. IOF raised ~US$12bn in FY24 and adds to banking burdens.
Fiscal Metrics: Brazil's fiscal revenue-to-GDP ratio is high (~40%), with spending pressures highlighted.

Petrobras (PBR): Confirmed non-binding bid for Braskem stake from Novonor; shareholders include PBR and Novonor.
SQM: Expected 1Q25 results with EBITDA ~US$340m; market focus on lithium prices and Chilean investigation.
Lojas Quero-Quero (LJQQ): SSS growth of 12.5% in 1Q25; emphasis on cash preservation, store maturation, and digital growth.
InRetail: Revenue growth challenged by Trujillo collapse; focus on hard discount stores and pharma margins.
CSAV: Virtual fireside chat on liner business update with Gemini cooperation; valuation at 64% discount to Hapag-Lloyd stake.
YDUQS: Regulatory changes favor quality in education; revised EPS guidance showing steady growth with buyback plans.
Alsea: Expands coffee shop network, targets 7,500 units; focuses on Mexico growth despite currency risks.

Braskem: High debt (ND/EBITDA ~7.9x), Novonor's negotiations ongoing.
Market Concerns: Currency volatility (e.g., Alsea's MXN exposure), liquidity constraints, regulatory risks in education.
Overall Outlook: Jefferies advises against tax hikes in Brazil; emphasizes operational leverage and cash flow in companies.

Most covered firms rated "Buy" with moderate upside. Jefferies' valuation includes risks like interest rate sensitivity and competitive pressures.
Analyst certifications confirm adherence to research standards.

This summary highlights key Jefferies insights; detailed financial data and projections are in the full report.

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