2013年-世界发展银行全球_Belarus_Public_Expenditure_Review___Enhancing_Public_Services_in_Times_of_Austerity_104页_1mb

Belarus Public Expenditure Review: Enhancing Public Services in Times of Austerity

Core Content

This report is the second volume of the Public Expenditure Review (PER) in Belarus, focusing on enhancing the quality and efficiency of public services in a fiscally constrained environment. It examines three key areas: intergovernmental fiscal relations, health financing, and education financing. The review is based on the findings from the first volume, which analyzed fiscal reforms, pension systems, and social assistance.

Main Macro-Economic and Fiscal Developments

• Belarus emerged from two consecutive macro-economic crises but remains at risk of re-emerging imbalances.
• Public expenditure fell by 13.2 percentage points of GDP between 2008 and 2011, reaching 36% of GDP in 2011.
• The tax burden decreased, and the general government balance moved from a surplus of 1.3% of GDP in 2008 to a deficit of 1.8% in 2010.
• A 2.8% consolidated general government budget surplus was recorded in 2011 due to inflation-driven revenue growth.
• The fiscal stance was found to be pro-cyclical, with fiscal expansions in 2008 and 2010 fueled by wage increases and transfers.
• Public debt has grown rapidly, with about half of it maturing in the next four years, and the debt-to-GDP ratio more than doubling since 2008, reaching over 31% by 2011.

Fiscal Challenges and Reform Options

• The need for credible and sustainable macro-economic reforms is emphasized, particularly in the context of ongoing fiscal constraints.
• Key reform priorities include:
  • Stabilizing the fiscal stance within a consistent macro-economic framework.
  • Linking public sector wage growth to productivity.
  • Rationalizing subsidies, especially in utility sectors, through cost recovery.
  • Protecting capital spending at current levels, with a focus on strategic investments like energy efficiency.

Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations

• Sub-national governments (SNGs) account for more than half of consolidated general government spending (Figure 4).
• SNGs are responsible for delivering essential public services such as utilities, health, education, and infrastructure.
• The current system of intergovernmental relations provides weak fiscal incentives for SNGs due to heavy reliance on central government transfers and rising liabilities.
• SNGs are primarily financed by shared national taxes (60% of sub-national revenues) and central transfers (35%).
• Own-source taxes and non-tax revenues account for the remaining 5%.
• Block grants, which are the largest transfers, are based on previous year's revenues and expenditures, adjusted for inflation and growth, and thus do not incentivize efficiency gains.

Sub-National Liabilities and Fiscal Risks

• Sub-national liabilities, including explicit and contingent debt, peaked at 14% of GDP in 2010 and fell to 10% of GDP by 2011 due to high inflation.
• These liabilities are still about double the 2007 level.
• As of 2011, three oblasts (Grodno, Mogilev, Brest) and 17 rayons exceeded the statutory debt limit (80% of pre-subventions revenue).

Reform Options for Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations

• Formally assign property taxes to local governments to increase their fiscal autonomy and incentives.
• Adjust property and land tax rates to provide local governments with more discretion.
• Enhance equalization transfers to reduce disparities in per capita spending between urban and rural areas.
• Reform the transfer framework to promote efficiency and reduce fiscal distortions.

Health Sector

• Health spending is relatively stable and commensurate with Belarus' income (Figure 8).
• Belarus has an extensive healthcare delivery system and a large workforce.
• Hospitals and inpatient care absorb the largest share of health expenditures.
• Out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditures mainly cover medicines, but less reliance on OOP leads to lower catastrophic health spending.
• Private health spending is moderately regressive, with lower-middle-class households most vulnerable to health shocks.
• Service satisfaction in health is improving, though there are signs of operational inefficiencies (Figure 28).
• Male mortality crisis and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are major contributors to low life expectancy in Belarus and the ECA region.
• Diagnostic Related Groups (DRG) are used to classify health treatments and improve efficiency.

Education Sector

• Public spending on education is adequate and in line with regional averages.
• The student-teacher ratio (STR) is among the lowest in the region, but this does not necessarily lead to better student performance.
• Recurrent spending dominates education expenditures, while capital spending is regionally concentrated.
• Education sector wages have declined, and school closures are well-targeted to reduce costs.
• Rural areas have higher per capita education spending due to the oversized and underutilized rural service infrastructure.
• Demographic changes, including an aging population and declining student numbers, are affecting demand for education services.

Key Findings and Recommendations

• Sub-national spending is growing and has become a major component of public expenditure.
• Rural areas have higher per capita spending than urban areas due to inefficiencies and lack of scale.
• Fiscal discipline must be balanced with targeted investments to support recovery and social development.
• Health and education sectors require reforms to improve efficiency and outcomes, especially in the context of aging populations and NCDs.
• Structural reforms and liberalization of the economy can help reduce the reliance on state subsidies and support fiscal sustainability.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the need for fiscal restraint, efficiency improvements, and structural reforms in the health and education sectors. It highlights the importance of strengthening sub-national fiscal incentives and aligning spending with demographic changes to ensure sustainable public service delivery in times of austerity.