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Summary of Disaster Risk Reduction and Emergency Management in Armenia

Core Content

This document provides an in-depth analysis of natural disaster risks and their impacts on Armenia, along with recommendations for improving disaster risk management and emergency response. It outlines the country's vulnerability to various natural hazards, including earthquakes, floods, hail, landslides, drought, erosion, and desertification, and highlights the economic and social consequences of these events.

Main Natural Hazards in Armenia

• Earthquakes: Armenia is highly susceptible to earthquakes, with historical events reaching magnitudes of up to 7.0. The country is located in a seismically active region, and the capital Yerevan is in one of the highest seismic risk areas. A 7.0 magnitude earthquake could destroy most buildings in Yerevan, potentially killing 300,000 people.
• Floods: Seasonal flooding occurs in the Araks, Hrazdan, and Aghstev river basins due to spring snowmelt. These floods can cause significant damage to property and infrastructure.
• Landslides and Mudflows: Approximately 122,000 hectares of Armenia are prone to landslides, with 35 percent of settlements located in such areas. Mudflows have damaged 200 settlements and 600 sites on main transportation routes.
• Hail: Hailstorms are a major threat to agriculture, causing annual losses of US$30-40 million. About 15-17 percent of Armenia's agricultural land is affected by hail damage.
• Drought, Erosion, and Desertification: Climate changes and human activities have increased desertification and erosion risks. Over 80 percent of the country is now threatened by desertification, with 50 percent facing severe desertification. Drought affects 15 percent of agricultural territory.

Social and Economic Impact

• Social Impact: Over 80 percent of Armenians are at risk of exposure to catastrophic events. The 1988 Spitak earthquake caused over 25,000 deaths, 19,000 injuries, and significant damage to infrastructure.
• Economic Impact: Natural disasters have caused substantial economic losses. The 1988 earthquake alone caused damages exceeding US$15-20 billion, which was more than two times Armenia's 2007 GDP. The 2004 UNDP report indicated that Armenia had the highest vulnerability to earthquakes, with 7,653 deaths per million exposed.
• Economic Vulnerability: The World Bank estimates that more than a quarter of Armenia's GDP is spent on common disasters, and seven times its GDP on catastrophic events. Economic growth has been impacted by natural disasters, particularly through the decline of the construction and mining sectors.

Institutional Framework

• Government Actions: Following the 1988 Spitak earthquake, the Government established the Ministry of Emergency Situations (MoES) and a cabinet-level Minister for disaster response.
• Organizations Involved: Key organizations include the Armenian Rescue Service (ARS), the State Academy of Crisis Management (SACM), the Armenian Red Cross Society (ARCS), and the National Center for Technical Security (NCTS).
• Coordination Challenges: Despite progress, the institutional framework remains fragmented, with multiple ministries involved in disaster mitigation. There is a need for a comprehensive national plan to coordinate inter-ministry activities and reduce duplication.

Recommendations for Improvement

1. Develop a Comprehensive National Plan: To improve coordination and reduce overlapping responsibilities, the Government should create a unified national disaster risk reduction and emergency management plan.
2. Strengthen Institutional Capacity: Enhancing the capacity of MoES and other agencies through better training, equipment, and communication systems is essential. Upgrading the national emergency operations center and emergency communications is recommended.
3. Improve Infrastructure Resilience: Retrofitting at-risk infrastructure and buildings, especially in high seismicity areas, is crucial. The Government should prioritize investments in critical infrastructure such as the electrical and gas networks, and rail bridges.
4. Access Financial Mechanisms: To reduce fiscal exposure, Armenia should consider utilizing financial tools such as catastrophic insurance facilities or contingent loan mechanisms.
5. Public Awareness and Communication: Establishing a national emergency call number and launching public education campaigns to improve preparedness and response.

Economic Context

• GDP Growth: From 2003 to 2009, Armenia experienced varying GDP growth rates, with a peak of 14.0% in 2003 and a decline to -15.6% in 2009.
• Inflation and Currency: Annual inflation averaged 3.4% from the late 1990s onwards. The Armenian Dram (AMD) appreciated against the USD from 458 in 2005 to 342 in 2007.
• Debt and Deficit: External public debt as a percentage of GDP decreased from 38.8% in 2003 to 13.2% in 2008, but increased again in 2009.
• Poverty Reduction: Poverty levels dropped from 49% in 2002 to 25% in 2007, with extreme poverty falling from 17% to 4.0%. However, the 2008 economic crisis threatens to reverse these gains.

Conclusion

Armenia faces significant natural disaster risks, particularly from earthquakes and floods. The country has made strides in establishing emergency management institutions, but further improvements in coordination, infrastructure resilience, and financial mechanisms are necessary to ensure effective disaster risk reduction and emergency preparedness. Strengthening these areas will be crucial for safeguarding the country's economic stability and social well-being.