世界银行-不丹的愿景_人民_进步与地球——到2029年达到中上收入水平_2024年政策说明（英）_31页_2mb

Summary of POLICY NOTES 2024: Bhutan's Aspirations

Core Content

This policy note outlines the challenges Bhutan faces in achieving its goal of becoming an upper middle-income country by 2029, focusing on three key areas: People, Economic Progress, and Sustainable Development on a Livable Planet. It highlights the socio-economic constraints affecting families, the urgency for reform, and the need for policy interventions to support human capital development, economic growth, and environmental resilience.

---

Main Challenges

• Emigration of Youth: Young people like Karma are leaving Bhutan due to limited job opportunities and lack of economic diversification, leading to a brain drain and population decline.
• Structural Economic Weaknesses:
  • The private sector is underdeveloped, with limited job creation.
  • State-owned enterprises dominate, especially in agriculture and other sectors.
  • The economy is heavily reliant on hydropower, which contributes to GDP but employs only 1% of the labor force.
• Rural Livelihood Constraints:
  • Kinley and Sonam, a rural couple, lack access to finance, markets, and business skills to expand their enterprises.
  • Natural hazards, such as floods and forest fires, threaten their livelihoods and safety.
• Education and Health System Strains:
  • Education and health services are unevenly distributed, with rural and remote areas suffering from inadequate infrastructure and service delivery.
  • Dechen, a single mother, struggles to find meaningful employment in her village, and Bhida's early education has been disrupted by natural disasters.
  • The education system has not fully adapted to the challenges of the pandemic, resulting in learning loss and reduced future earning potential.
• Climate Change Risks:
  • Unpredictable weather and increased natural disaster risks are undermining rural livelihoods and development.
  • Climate resilience and disaster preparedness are critical to safeguarding communities.

---

Main Policy Recommendations

Investing in People

• Early Years:
  • Expand Early Childhood Care and Development (ECCD) services to remote and vulnerable populations.
  • Align cash incentives for the third child with the mother and child health benefit program to improve cost-effectiveness and coverage.
• School Age:
  • Update the National Education Policy to address teacher development, infrastructure, and climate resilience.
  • Integrate mental health counseling and improve digital connectivity in schools.
  • Increase ECCD enrollment and service quality to enhance cognitive and socioemotional development.
• Adulthood:
  • Strengthen employment service centers and labor market information systems.
  • Promote female labor force participation through incentives and support.
  • Address gender-based violence and improve social protection systems.
• Healthcare:
  • Improve maternal and child health services, including antenatal and postnatal care.
  • Ensure that all pregnant women receive eight antenatal care visits and four postnatal care visits.
  • Increase the use of comprehensive maternal and child health services to reduce malnutrition and improve human capital.

Fostering Economic Progress

• Private Sector Development:
  • Implement a partial credit guarantee scheme to support private sector growth.
  • Allow external commercial borrowing for larger companies, including financial institutions.
• Macroeconomic Stability:
  • Operationalize the Bhutan Economic Stabilization Fund.
  • Implement a new goods and services tax to manage fiscal volatility.
• Trade and Connectivity:
  • Enhance trade with neighbors by meeting global sanitary and phytosanitary standards.
  • Develop a trade information portal and improve web-based trade facilitation.
  • Facilitate transit traffic through India and Bangladesh using containerized vehicles and waterways.
• Infrastructure Development:
  • Design a comprehensive financing strategy for the hydropower project pipeline to meet the 2035 target of 7,000 MW of electricity.
  • Strengthen data governance, privacy, and cybersecurity to support digital transformation.

Promoting Sustainable Development

• Climate and Environmental Resilience:
  • Improve disaster risk management and early warning systems.
  • Enhance the resilience of critical infrastructure against natural disasters.
• Sustainable Finance:
  • Finalize the policy and governance framework for the National Carbon Registry.
  • Leverage Bhutan's negative carbon footprint to monetize GHG emissions and support climate financing.
• Green Growth:
  • Promote sustainable agriculture, forestry, and tourism.
  • Support the development of high-value natural renewable resources for export and domestic use.

---

Key Information

• Human Capital Index (HCI): Bhutan needs to increase its HCI to match the 56% average of upper middle-income countries.
• Education Outcomes:
  • Primary school completion rate: 90% (2021).
  • Lower secondary completion rate: 60% (2022).
  • Literacy rate among 15–24-year-olds: 98% (2022).
  • Literacy rate among the general population: 86% (2021).
• Fertility and Mortality Rates:
  • Fertility rate: 1.9% (2020).
  • Crude death rate: 6.3 per 1,000 (2020).
• Under-five Stunting:
  • 21% nationally (2015), with higher rates in the eastern region (29%) and rural areas (26%).
• ECCD Enrollment:
  • 38.6% of children aged 3–5 are enrolled in ECCD centers (2022).
• Economic Outlook:
  • Bhutan graduated from LDC status in December 2023, reducing concessional donor funding.
  • The economy is at a crossroads, requiring urgent reforms and investments to reverse the emigration trend and support rural entrepreneurship.

---

Conclusion

Bhutan's path to upper middle-income status by 2029 is fraught with challenges, including high emigration rates, limited private sector growth, and weak social and economic systems. To address these, the government must implement immediate and medium-term reforms that focus on human capital development, economic diversification, and climate resilience. A coalition of citizens, communities, civil society, the private sector, and development partners is essential to achieving these goals. By investing in education, healthcare, and sustainable development, Bhutan can secure a more prosperous and resilient future for its people.