2025-06-16-高盛-中国乘用车月度图表集_2025年5月-国内市场库存增加且价格折扣扩大；比亚迪在欧洲主要市场同比增长7.8倍_30页_5mb

China Passenger Vehicle Monthly Chartbook for May 2025 highlights key trends and data from Goldman Sachs, dated June 16, 2025.

• Industry Trends: Passenger vehicle retail and wholesale volumes grew by +13% year-over-year and +10% month-over-month, respectively. New energy vehicle (NEV) volumes surged +43% yoy and +8% mom, with NEV penetration reaching 49.4% and 48.2% for retail and wholesale, up +9.10pp yoy and +10.29pp yoy. Overall market inventory months increased, indicating higher inventory levels.

• Pricing and Discounts: NEV dealer discounts widened, with average discounts at 8.05% yoy, while internal combustion engine (ICE) discounts remained high at 22.79%. MSRP cuts were significant, with NEV price cuts averaging -2.0% in 2025, contributing to increased discounts.

• Company Performance: BYD delivered 293,000 domestic retail units in May 2025, with stable pricing, and saw a 7.8x year-over-year growth in key European markets. Target prices for BYD shares (Rmb424/A share, HK$139/H share) reflect strong performance and potential upside. Li Auto achieved 41,000 domestic retail units in May 2025, with a 0.2pp market share increase and a 6% mom transaction price rise due to reduced discounts from refreshed models.

• Key Insights: Domestic markets faced higher inventory (+5% yoy) and aggressive price promotions, while Chinese brands gained market share in Europe and domestically, driven by NEV demand. Data shows robust growth in NEV sector and BYD's global expansion, but risks such as intensified competition and slower overseas progress are noted.