20220727-马银证券_香港_-每日港股简评_2页_160kb

Document Summary: Market Overview and Sector News

Core Content Overview

This document provides a summary of the Hong Kong stock market performance and key sector updates in China, including insights into the real estate, online retail, and coal industries, as well as company-specific news from NetEase-S and Tencent. It also includes disclaimers regarding the nature of the information provided.

Market Performance

• Hong Kong Stock Markets: Advanced due to the rally of tech stocks, especially Alibaba-SW (9988 HK), which gained 4.8% following reports of a potential primary listing in Hong Kong, expected to be completed by end-2022E.
• Hang Seng Index: Rose 342 points to 20,905 points with a daily turnover of HKD96.5 billion.
• Overnight U.S. Markets: Fell on recession fears, prompting expectations that the Hang Seng Index will open approximately 200 points lower this morning, at 20,700 points.

Sector News

1. China Property

• Issue: Property developers are struggling to secure financing, leading to market concerns over property boycotts across 26 provinces/cities.
• Government Response: The Chinese government announced the establishment of a real estate fund to backstop property risk, with an estimated total size of RMB200b–300b.
• Funding Sources: The fund will be initially secured by CCB (939 HK) (up to RMB50b) and a relending facility from the PBOC (up to RMB30b).
• Market Implications:
  • Could ease liquidity risk for property developers in the short term.
  • May alleviate market concerns and improve sentiment towards the real estate sector.
  • The fund size is considered potentially sufficient to address current issues.

2. China Online Retail

• Performance: Online retail sales of tangible goods resumed positive growth in June at 5.6% YoY, compared to 7% YoY in May.
• Drivers: Strong presales for the 618 Shopping Festival, which began in late May and ended in late June, had a larger-than-expected impact.
• Forecast: Market expects the e-commerce sector to continue its gradual recovery in the second half of 2022E, supported by the low base effect and government consumption coupons, particularly in the vehicle and home appliance sectors.

3. China Coal

• Price Trends: The CCTD QHD5,500 blended coal price and BSPI index remained flat WoW, while the QHD5,500 spot coal price dropped by 0.7% WoW.
• Inventory Levels: Average coal inventory at QHD decreased by 2.8% WoW to 5.85mt as of 22 July. Major thermal IPPs in coastal provinces saw a 1.72% drop in coal inventory to 28.06mt as of 24 July.
• Consumption: Daily coal consumption dropped slightly by 1.79% to 2.19mt.
• Government Action: China is actively negotiating with Russia to increase coal supply, with thermal coal imports from Russia reaching 3.3mt in May (+51% MoM).
• Market Outlook: Thermal coal prices are expected to remain stable in 3Q22E, as QHD coal inventory remains above 5.8mt, higher than the 5mt level in 2020, despite the summer peak season for coal-fired IPPs.

Company News

NetEase-S (9999 HK)

• Diablo Immortal Launch: Launched on 25 July, confirming media reports.
• Pre-Registration: Accumulated 15 million pre-registrations.
• App Store Performance: Topped the free download chart in China iOS app stores on the day of launch due to the pre-order function.
• Market Expectations: Gradual improvement in the game's performance on the iOS ranking chart will be a key focus in the first week.

Tencent (700 HK)

• E-Commerce Expansion: Launched a new e-commerce tool on 21 July to enable merchants to create online stores on Channels, a short video and live-streaming service within WeChat.
• Video Ads Integration: Added video ads to Channels feeds on 18 July, allowing users to shop directly through ads and share with friends on WeChat.
• Objective: Streamline the process for merchants to list, sell, and receive payments for products.

Key Takeaways

• Tech stocks, particularly Alibaba, drove the rally in Hong Kong markets.
• The real estate sector faces liquidity challenges, but government intervention with a new fund may provide relief.
• Online retail sales show signs of recovery, supported by the 618 Shopping Festival and government incentives.
• Coal prices remain stable due to sufficient inventory levels, despite the summer peak season.
• Tencent is expanding its e-commerce capabilities within WeChat, enhancing its ecosystem.

Disclaimers

• This document is for general information and not investment research or recommendations.
• Information is based on reliable sources but not independently verified.
• No liability is accepted for reliance on the content.
• MIB (HK) may have financial interests in companies mentioned, and no solicitation to buy or sell securities is implied.