2025-06-08-IMF-ECCU的财政可持续性和自然灾害风险_ECCU（英）_10页_1mb

Summary

• Introduction: The Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) member states face extremely high vulnerability to recurring and increasingly severe natural disasters (NDs). The region suffers substantial average annual economic losses, estimated at 4% of GDP.
• Economic Impact & Trends: ND losses have intensified, with some events causing damages far exceeding GDP (e.g., 225% for Dominica post-Hurricane Maria). Projections indicate higher ND frequency and intensity due to climate change. Economic losses are severe and recovery is protracted.
• Fiscal Sustainability: Analysis shows that moderate to severe NDs significantly harm fiscal positions in ECCU countries.
  • Unconditional event-case analysis: Following a severity threshold, NDs increase gross public debt by ~7 percentage points of GDP within three years and worsen the primary balance by ~2 percentage points of GDP.
  • Local projections (robust econometric method): Average gross public debt increases by 7 percentage points of GDP three years post-disaster, and the primary balance deteriorates (particularly with public sector salaries excluded). Output response is not statistically significant, suggesting reconstruction offsets the destruction impact.
• Concluding Fiscal Impact: The findings confirm that severe NDs negatively impact fiscal balances, leading to higher debt levels.
• Recommendations: Robust disaster resilience strategies are urgent. These should include:
  • Structural Resilience: Investments in infrastructure, land-use planning, building codes, and social safety nets.
  • Financial Resilience: Establishing fiscal buffers (contingency funds), utilizing parametric insurance (like CCRIF), and securing contingent financing (e.g., catastrophe bonds).
• Final Recommendations: A coordinated, multi-layered resilience strategy across ECCU countries is vital for recovery, long-term economic stability, and fiscal sustainability, including information sharing and regional infrastructure standards.