2022-01-31-瑞士信贷集团-不断上升的利率和Omicron变种在医疗基金多元宇宙中开辟了一个新的不确定维度_61页_3mb

Healthcare REITs Equity Research Summary

This report analyzes Healthcare REITs in the context of rising interest rates and the Omicron COVID-19 variant's impact on healthcare real estate. The research covers key REITs, with ratings reflecting valuation, earnings potential, and risk factors.

Key Themes

• Healthcare REITs are sensitive to rising rates due to long-term leases. Historically, they underperformed during prior rate hikes.
• Omicron may slow recovery in senior housing and skilled nursing, driven by lower occupancy, rent deferrals, and labor shortages.
• Life sciences and hospital-focused REITs appear more resilient.

Sector Coverage & Ratings

• Outperform: Healthcare Realty (HR), Healthcare Trust of America (HTA), Medical Properties Trust (MPW): Reflecting
  strong fundamentals, premium growth potential, and valuation discounts.
• Neutral: Most other REITs (Welltower, Ventas, Healthpeak, Physicians Realty, CareTrust, Omega Healthcare, Sabra, LTC
  Properties) due to mixed outlooks, Omicron risks, and competitive dynamics.
• Underperform: National Health Investors (NHI): Faces near-term pain from slower occupancy and tenant credit issues.

Key Insights by REIT

1. Healthcare Realty (HR, Outperform):

   • High-quality MOB portfolio trading below peer multiples (17.1x vs 20.7x peers).
   • Potential for take-out at $32-37/share via TIAA JV.

2. Healthcare Trust of America (HTA, Outperform):

   • Strategic review may lead to sale, with valuation $32-37.
   • Value-creation opportunities via operational improvements.

3. Medical Properties Trust (MPW, Outperform):

   • Strong hospital cap rate compression expected, enhancing NAV.
   • Best-positioned to benefit from skilled nursing recovery.

4. Welltower (WELL, Neutral):

   • Neutral due to high valuation (23.6x P/FFO) and Omicron slowing SHOP recovery.

5. Ventas (VTR, Neutral):

   • SHOP recovery risks mean downward earnings pressure; valuation expensive.

Omicron Impact Assessment

• Senior housing and skilled nursing face heightened risks from Omicron: occupancy slowdowns, rent deferrals, and tenant credit issues.
• Life sciences and hospital assets appear less affected, though valuation concerns persist.

Conclusion
The healthcare REIT outlook is mixed, with MOBs and life sciences better positioned than senior housing. Rising rates and Omicron create headwinds, but selective opportunities exist, particularly in MOBs and hospitals.