2017-2018年德国在华企业商业信心调查报告（英文版）_40页-1mb

Summary of German Business Confidence Survey 2017/18

Core Content

The German Chamber of Commerce in China conducted its annual business confidence survey in 2017/18, gathering insights from 423 valid responses. The survey covers economic outlook, market environment, business challenges, investment prospects, R&D activities, and views on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Main Points and Key Findings

Economic and Business Outlook

• Recovery from 2016: German companies' economic outlook has improved from the low forecast of 2016, with nearly two-thirds expecting to exceed or achieve their business targets in 2017 and 2018.
• Turnover Growth: Turnover growth has rebounded strongly, but profit, employment, and investment growth remain cautious compared to 2015 or earlier.
• Industry Performance: Machinery/industrial equipment industry reported a strong comeback in 2017, while automotive and business services maintained optimism for 2018.
• Investment Trends: Investment increases are mainly driven by the automotive industry, and only a quarter of companies plan to invest at new locations within the next two years.

Market Environment, Reforms and Policies

• Market Significance: The Chinese market is still significant, but its importance has decreased slightly over the years.
• Policy Impact: While some reforms are welcomed, the majority of companies feel they have not had a notable impact. The new Cybersecurity Law has caused uncertainty, with one in three companies unsure of its impact and one in five expecting a negative effect.
• Made in China 2025: Approximately half of the companies expect a positive impact from the strategy over the next five to ten years.
• Bilateral Relations: Bilateral relations between China and Germany are considered extremely or very relevant by 58% of respondents. Market access and a level playing field for foreign businesses are seen as urgent issues for the German government.

Business Challenges

• Top Challenges: Human resources and internet issues are the top two challenges, with nearly 80% of companies citing labor shortages and rising costs as major problems.
• Domestic Competition: Increased innovation capacity of Chinese companies is a growing concern, with over 40% of companies expecting Chinese competitors to become innovation leaders within five years.
• Regulatory and Legal Issues: Over half of companies have encountered legal or regulatory obstacles in the past year, primarily related to customs and capital transfer. Protectionism and legal uncertainty have re-emerged as key concerns.

Investment Prospects

• Investment Intentions: Only a quarter of companies plan to invest at new locations in China within the next two years, with Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Sichuan/Chongqing being the most preferred locations.
• Financing Sources: Reinvestments of earnings from the Chinese market are the main source of investment financing.
• Investment Types: Over half of new investments in 2018 will be in manufacturing facilities, with automation and R&D also being highly prioritized.
• Reasons for Not Investing: Market growth expectations and strategic considerations are the primary reasons, with one in four citing regulatory issues.

Research and Development

• R&D in China: Over 40% of German companies conduct R&D in China, with a quarter planning to establish such activities within the next two years.
• Reasons for Not Engaging: Concerns about intellectual property and technology transfer, as well as a focus on German R&D, are the main reasons for not conducting R&D in China.
• Improvements in China: The perception of China as a research location has improved, with fewer companies citing lack of technical expertise or unfavorable research environments.

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

• Engagement in BRI: 30% of German companies are active in or considering BRI projects.
• Impact on Business: Over one-third of companies see a positive effect from BRI, while more than half report no significant effect or no opinion.
• Project Locations: China is the main location for BRI projects, with a quarter of companies also engaging in projects in Southeast and Central Asia, Europe, and Africa.
• Project Stages: Nearly half of BRI-engaged companies are already implementing or planning concrete projects, while 55% are still in the planning or idea stage.

Conclusion

The survey highlights a cautiously optimistic outlook among German companies in China, with improvements in economic performance and industry-specific growth. However, challenges such as regulatory uncertainty, labor costs, and internet access persist. The BRI is seen as a potential opportunity, though its impact remains uncertain for many. Overall, the German business community continues to see China as a key market but remains concerned about the evolving regulatory and competitive landscape.