2006年-世界发展银行全球_Moldova_Poverty_Update_34页_2mb

Moldova Poverty Update Summary

Core Content

This document provides a detailed analysis of poverty trends in Moldova from 1997 to 2005, focusing on the shift from declining poverty to its stabilization and subsequent increase. It highlights the role of economic growth, public and private transfers, and agricultural market conditions in shaping these trends.

Main Points

• Poverty Trends:

  • Moldova's poverty rate fell sharply after the Russian financial crisis in 1999.
  • However, since late 2002, the poverty rate has stabilized and even increased in rural areas.
  • The national poverty rate declined by more than half between 1999 and 2003, but the decline has halted since 2004.

• Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction:

  • GDP growth continued after 2002, but it no longer reduced poverty effectively.
  • In 2005, GDP growth was 7% annually, yet the seasonally adjusted poverty rate increased by 2.5 percentage points.
  • This indicates that economic growth is not translating into poverty reduction anymore.

• Agricultural Sector Challenges:

  • The poverty rate among rural households increased significantly from 2003 to 2005.
  • The decline in real farm incomes, due to stagnant or falling output prices and rising input prices, is a major cause of rural poverty increase.
  • Farm-gate prices in Moldova are far below international prices, suggesting weak bargaining power for farmers.
  • Restrictions on exports to Russia and differences in European quality standards have also contributed to lower prices.

• Land Policy and Investment Incentives:

  • Land distribution to family farms in the late 1990s helped recovery in agricultural production.
  • The slowing of land distribution in 2002 and 2003 reduced the potential for agricultural income growth and poverty reduction.

• Social Transfers and Income Distribution:

  • Public and private transfers (e.g., remittances) played a key role in reducing poverty from 1999 to 2002.
  • These transfers continued through 2003–2005, but they did not compensate for the decline in agricultural incomes.
  • Public transfers are not targeted to the poorest groups, and the Government's social assistance is not focused on the most vulnerable.

• Measurement of Poverty:

  • Both the MEC and World Bank use similar methods to measure poverty, with minor differences in assumptions and adjustments.
  • The MEC measure is slightly lower than the World Bank measure due to the lower poverty line used.
  • The Government is improving its measurement methods and is planning to align them more closely with the World Bank approach.

• Poverty Profile by Region and Demographics:

  • Urban areas saw continued poverty reduction, while rural areas experienced a rise in poverty.
  • The rural poverty rate increased by 6.8 percentage points from 2003 to 2005 Q1-Q3.
  • Small towns showed a more volatile trend, with some stabilization but not consistent improvement.
  • Large cities saw a continued decline in poverty.
  • The poorest groups, particularly those headed by farmers and pensioners, experienced the most significant increases in poverty.
  • Education level and age of the head of household also influenced poverty rates, with the highest rates among those with primary or no education.

• Policy Recommendations:

  • The next EGPRSP should focus on promoting rural incomes.
  • Policies should aim to improve the competitiveness of agricultural markets, including addressing export regulations and meeting international quality standards.
  • Land distribution should be resumed to enhance investment incentives.
  • Social assistance should be targeted to the poorest groups to improve poverty reduction effectiveness.

Key Information

• Currency Equivalents:

  • 1 MDL = 0.075 USD (as of June 9, 2006).
  • 1 USD = 1.4879 SDR.

• Fiscal Year:

  • January 1 to December 31.

• Data Sources:

  • National Bureau of Statistics.
  • World Bank.
  • Household Budget Survey (HBS).

• Poverty Lines:

  • MEC uses a poverty line of 327 MDL per adult equivalent in 2004.
  • World Bank uses a poverty line of US$2 per day (PPP basis).

• GDP Growth:

  • From 1999 to 2003, GDP per capita in constant US$ rose by more than a quarter.
  • In 2004, GDP growth was over 7%, but poverty did not decline as sharply as in previous years.

• Inequality Trends:

  • Inequality (measured by Gini coefficient) has been on a slight downward trend since 2000.
  • The Gini coefficient for consumption expenditures fell from 0.396 in 1999 to 0.356 in 2003, then rose to 0.375 in 2005 Q1-Q3.

Conclusion

The document concludes that Moldova has become a relatively poor country despite sustained GDP growth, with the poverty rate stabilizing and increasing in rural areas. This is attributed to declining agricultural incomes, due to poor market conditions and policy constraints. Future policy should focus on improving agricultural market competitiveness, resuming land distribution, and targeting social assistance to the poorest groups.