2009年-世界发展银行全球_Growth_is_Disappearing_and_May_Not_Recover_in_the_Medium_Run_4页_484kb

Summary of "Growth is Disappearing and May Not Recover in the Medium Run"

Core Content

The document discusses the impact of the global financial crisis on countries in transition in Central, Eastern, and South Eastern Europe (CESE), emphasizing that growth is not only declining but may not recover in the medium term. It highlights the challenges these economies face due to their integration with the European Union (EU), external imbalances, fiscal and monetary policy constraints, and social and political risks.

Main Points

1. Impact of the Global Crisis on CESE Economies

• CESE countries, especially the New Member States (NMS) and Future Member States (FMS), have been significantly affected by the crisis.
• Although some stabilization occurred early in 2009, the risk of further deterioration remains high.
• The crisis has led to a sharp decline in both exports and imports due to high trade integration with the EU.
• Financial integration has also introduced instability, even in countries with sound domestic financial sectors.

2. Integration and Contagion

• Integration with the EU has been both a cause and a mitigator of the crisis.
• More integrated economies suffer more from the crisis but are better positioned to benefit from EU stabilization measures.
• The neoclassical growth model, characterized by high and persistent current account deficits, is under threat due to the crisis.
• Countries with current account deficits are particularly vulnerable to declining export demand and foreign financing constraints.

3. Exchange Rate Regimes and Fiscal Policies

• Exchange rate regimes significantly affect the stability and sustainability of macroeconomic balances.
• Countries with flexible exchange rates have experienced devaluations, which have had mixed effects—cushioning the tradable sector but increasing financial risks.
• Countries with fixed exchange rates face challenges in stabilizing their financial sectors and must rely on deflation, which risks real economic stability.
• Eurozone countries (Slovenia, Slovakia) and those using the euro (e.g., Montenegro, Kosovo) face additional difficulties in adjusting real exchange rates due to loss of competitiveness.

4. Savings and Exports

• Domestic savings must increase to support growth in the absence of foreign financing.
• However, transition economies have limited capacity to boost savings due to demographic factors, low employment rates, and weak public and private sector incentives.
• Growth based on domestic demand is possible in larger countries like Russia, Ukraine, and Poland, but not in smaller, more open economies.
• Recovery will depend heavily on the EU's demand for exports, which is expected to take time.

5. Social and Political Risks

• Political stability is relatively high in CESE countries due to their democratic nature and EU membership.
• However, the crisis could lead to social unrest and increased populism, especially if unemployment and structural imbalances worsen.
• The EU may not be able to address medium-term stagnation effectively, as it lacks the means to engineer a strong recovery with robust import demand.

Key Information

• Current Account Deficits: A key feature of the neoclassical growth model in CESE, which has been disrupted by the crisis.
• Fiscal Sustainability: Many transition economies have faced rising fiscal deficits, increasing public debt to GDP ratios, and unsustainable fiscal positions.
• Monetary Policy: Only Russia has sufficient monetary policy space to respond to the crisis, while others are constrained by exchange rate regimes.
• EU's Role: The EU's demand for CESE exports is critical for recovery, but the EU's own economic situation remains uncertain.
• IMF Involvement: The IMF is expected to support financial stability and orderly deleveraging through programs and initiatives like the Vienna Initiative.
• Future Outlook: The return to convergence growth is uncertain, and the medium-term risks of prolonged stagnation and social/political instability are significant.

Conclusion

The document concludes that the neoclassical growth model in CESE is unlikely to recover in the medium run due to the ongoing crisis and its impact on external imbalances, fiscal sustainability, and the real economy. The transition to a more sustainable growth model based on higher domestic savings is difficult and contingent on EU recovery and policy adjustments.