2000年-世界发展银行全球_Kyrgyz_Republic___Fiscal_Sustainability_Study_119页_8mb

Kyrgyz Republic Fiscal Sustainability Study Summary

Core Content

This report, prepared by the World Bank in June 2000, analyzes the fiscal sustainability of the Kyrgyz Republic (KRG) in the context of post-Soviet economic transformation and macroeconomic adjustment. It highlights the challenges posed by the collapse of the Former Soviet Union (FSU), the subsequent fiscal and debt issues, and the need for structural reforms to ensure long-term economic stability and poverty reduction.

Main Points

1. Macroeconomic and Fiscal Adjustment

• Post-Soviet Collapse Impact: The Kyrgyz Republic experienced one of the worst economic contractions in the CIS, with output falling by 50% between 1991 and 1995.
• Fiscal Consequences: The collapse led to a significant loss of tax revenues (7.5% of GDP) and the end of implicit energy subsidies.
• Stabilization Efforts: By 1996, the macroeconomic situation was under control, with GDP growth resuming. The government implemented significant fiscal adjustments, including reductions in social expenditures and budgetary transfers.
• Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit in 1998 was over 11% of GDP, far exceeding the acceptable level of 4.6% under realistic macroeconomic targets. This necessitates a reduction of at least 5.5% of GDP.

2. External Debt and Sustainability

• High Debt Burden: The external debt reached US$1.5 billion by end-1998, equivalent to 96% of GDP.
• Debt-Output Ratio: This ratio quadrupled in five years, indicating a growing problem.
• Debt Service Challenges: The debt service burden is expected to surge between 2000 and 2005, with non-concessional debt (50% of total) needing repayment.
• Debt Relief Consideration: Due to the unsustainable debt burden, the report suggests considering debt relief or rescheduling. Traditional approaches are difficult due to the composition of the debt (mostly commercial and bilateral).

3. Structural Reforms

• Need for Adjustment: Even with debt relief, fiscal adjustment and expenditure cuts are necessary. These reforms should focus on efficiency and targeting.
• Key Reforms: The report emphasizes the need for pension reform, education and health reform, and civil service reform, supported by various international institutions.

Key Structural Issues

1. Tax System

• Revenue Effort: The revenue effort is low, especially for groups that have benefited from reforms.
• Tax Reforms: The report outlines major tax reforms, including the introduction of a more efficient and targeted tax code.
• Revenue Effects: Proposed reforms are expected to have significant positive revenue effects, particularly in improving tax collection and reducing losses.

2. Public Infrastructure and Utilities

• Performance Issues: Public infrastructure and utility companies are loss-making and inefficient, with low cost-reflective tariffs.
• Subsidy System: The current subsidy system is costly, unaffordable, inefficient, and poorly targeted.
• Tariff Adjustments: Tariffs need to be raised to ensure financial viability, attract private investment, and improve service quality.
• Private Sector Participation: Privatization and concessions are recommended to bring in new resources and improve productivity.

Recommendations

• Fiscal Adjustment: A significant fiscal adjustment is necessary to reduce the deficit and stabilize the debt-output ratio.
• Debt Relief: Consideration of debt relief or rescheduling is crucial to mitigate the debt burden and support social expenditures.
• Structural Reforms: Implement structural reforms in the tax system and public infrastructure to improve efficiency and resource allocation.

Key Information

• Currency: The Kyrgyz Republic uses the Som (1 US$ = 48.2 Som as of May 20, 2000).
• Fiscal Year: January 1 to December 31.
• Major Entities:
  • MoF: Ministry of Finance
  • NBKR: National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic
  • SOSAC: Social Sector Adjustment Credit
  • EU-TACIS: European Union-Technical Assistance for Commonwealth of Independent States
• Key Figures:
  • GDP Growth: 7% in 1996, 9.9% in 1997
  • Inflation: 15% in 1997
  • Debt-Output Ratio: Quadrupled in five years
  • Debt Service Burden: Expected to surge in 2000-2005
  • Potential Savings: Up to 2.5% of GDP from improved efficiency and cost reduction in utilities

Conclusion

The Kyrgyz Republic faces significant fiscal and debt sustainability challenges. A three-fold strategy is proposed: macroeconomic stability, debt relief, and structural reforms. These reforms are essential to ensure the financial viability of public utilities, improve tax collection, and support long-term economic growth and poverty reduction.