2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_New_Zealand_Selected_Issues_Paper_40页_925kb

New Zealand: Selected Issues Summary

Core Content

This document is a selected issues paper prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for New Zealand, analyzing factors influencing saving behavior in Australia and New Zealand, and their implications for national saving and current account balances.

Main Views

1. Saving Behavior and National Saving

• New Zealand's net national saving has been significantly lower than the average for advanced countries over the past 15 years, contributing to persistent current account deficits and a buildup in net foreign liabilities.
• Australia's net national saving has been just below the average for advanced countries.
• The Savings Working Group in New Zealand recommended increasing national saving by 2-3 percent of GDP, primarily through public saving and tax policy changes.

2. Factors Influencing Saving Behavior

• Old-age dependency ratio has a significant negative impact on private saving. A 1 percentage point increase in the ratio is associated with a $\frac{1}{3} - \frac{2}{3}$ percentage point decline in the saving rate.
• Terms of trade have a positive impact on private saving in Australia but a less significant effect in New Zealand.
• Public saving is negatively correlated with private saving. A 1 percent increase in public saving is associated with a $\frac{1}{3} - \frac{1}{2}$ percent decline in private saving in Australia and a $\frac{1}{2} - \frac{2}{3}$ percent decline in New Zealand.
• Household wealth (measured by real stock and house prices) does not have a statistically significant effect on saving.
• Inflation and real GDP growth per capita have some impact on saving, with higher real GDP growth associated with higher saving rates.
• Demographics have a mixed effect: while the old-age dependency ratio is a key factor, life expectancy and young-age dependency ratio are less significant in explaining saving behavior in New Zealand.

3. Model Fit and Limitations

• The cross-country model provides some insight into the factors affecting saving but does not fit well for New Zealand, particularly during the housing boom (2003-07).
• The OLS model offers a better fit for both countries, with household net wealth being a key explanatory variable.
• The error correction model (ECM) also supports the findings from the cross-country model, showing that public saving and terms of trade are important drivers of saving behavior.

4. Policy Implications

• Increasing public saving is the most effective way to raise national saving, with a 1 percent increase in public saving leading to a $\frac{1}{2} - \frac{3}{5}$ percent increase in national saving in New Zealand and a $\frac{1}{3} - \frac{1}{2}$ percent increase in Australia.
• Higher government spending on social protection and health care is associated with lower private saving in New Zealand, suggesting that better targeting of transfers could help raise saving.
• Structural reforms to increase productivity may help raise saving through higher real GDP growth.
• Demographic trends, such as aging populations, are expected to reduce private saving over time, implying a need for larger increases in public saving.

Key Information

Saving Rates and Trends

• New Zealand's net private saving rate fell below the late 1980s average by 2009, while Australia's net private saving recovered to above the average.
• Net public saving in New Zealand was 3 percent of GDP above the average for advanced countries over the past 15 years.

Model Results

• Pooled OLS and GMM estimates show that public saving, terms of trade, and demographics are the main factors affecting saving behavior.
• Household net worth is negatively correlated with private saving, particularly in New Zealand.
• The Ricardian offset is estimated to be around 0.45, suggesting that public saving has a significant impact on private saving.

Policy Recommendations

• Public saving should be prioritized to increase national saving.
• Tax reforms and compulsory saving schemes could also be effective, though not assessed in detail in this paper.
• Social protection and health care spending in New Zealand has increased significantly, which may have a negative impact on private saving.

Summary Table of Key Findings

Conclusion

The document highlights that while standard models provide some understanding of saving behavior in Australia and New Zealand, they are not fully explanatory, especially for New Zealand. It suggests that increasing public saving is the most effective policy to raise national saving, and that demographic changes and terms of trade also play important roles. The findings support the Savings Working Group's recommendations and suggest the need for fiscal policy adjustments and structural reforms to improve saving behavior in the long term.