2025-06-09-Bernstein-全球航空航天与国防商用飞机_原始设备制造_售后市场-为何两者都将增长_25页_1mb

Global Aerospace & Defense Market Analysis Summary

Key Highlights:

1. Commercial Aircraft Demand Outstrips Supply: Global airline traffic growth (ASK) is expected between 5-6% in 2025, necessitating higher deliveries from Boeing and Airbus. However, production delays, especially on the 737MAX and A320neo, have led to a significant delivery shortfall compared to pre-COVID forecasts, with Boeing and Airbus collectively under-delivered by hundreds of planes.

2. Fleet Aging: Due to lower deliveries, the global fleet age profile has worsened, with a higher proportion of older aircraft (< 6 years old) and more aircraft exceeding 20 years. This drives demand for maintenance, repairs, and engine life extensions.

3. Strong Engine Aftermarket: Legacy engines (CFM56, V2500) remain highly utilized, supporting aftermarket demand (spares, MRO). New engines like LEAP are performing well, but engine issues (e.g., Pratt & Whitney GTF groundings) are affecting newer fleets and potentially constraining some aftermarket segments upon grounding resolution.

4. Geographic Variations: Traffic growth is strong in Asia-Pacific (excluding China domestic), intra-Europe, and intercontinental routes, while U.S. domestic and China domestic show some softness. North American carriers show improved operating profits.

5. Next Major Milestone: The upcoming Paris Air Show will provide insights into new orders (particularly from China) and delivery guidance for A350 and A320 programs, with a heavier reliance on H2 2025 deliveries to meet backlog targets.

Implications:

• Boeing and Airbus face challenges balancing capacity growth with operational efficiency.
• Engine manufacturers (GE, RTX, Safran) benefit from strong aftermarket activity, but face specific issues with LEAP and GTF deliveries.
• The aging fleet ensures sustained demand for aftermarket services and parts, supporting profits.