IEA-2021年全球电动汽车展望（英文）-2021.4-101页_9mb

Global EV Outlook 2021 Summary

Core Content

The Global EV Outlook 2021 is an annual publication by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that examines global developments in electric mobility. It highlights the resilience of the electric vehicle (EV) market despite the challenges posed by the pandemic and outlines policy recommendations to accelerate the transition to electric mobility.

The report discusses the growth of EV markets, the expansion of charging infrastructure, the evolution of battery demand, and the policy frameworks that support EV adoption. It also introduces two online tools: the Global EV Data Explorer and Global EV Policy Explorer, which allow users to explore EV statistics and policy measures worldwide.

Main Trends and Developments

Electric Vehicles (EVs) in 2020

• Global EV stock: Reached 10 million units by the end of 2020, representing a 43% increase from 2019.
• Electric car registrations: Increased by 41% in 2020 despite the global pandemic.
• Sales share: Electric cars accounted for 4.6% of global car sales in 2020, a record high.
• Market shift: Europe overtook China as the largest EV market in 2020, with 1.4 million new registrations compared to China's 1.2 million.
• Battery electric vehicles (BEVs): Dominated the market, accounting for two-thirds of new EV registrations and the majority of the stock.

Charging Infrastructure

• Public chargers: Increased to 1.3 million units in 2020, a sevenfold increase over the last five years.
• Covid-19 impact: Muted the growth of charging infrastructure in 2020, although China remained the leader.
• Megachargers: Planning is needed to enable long-distance trucking, with the report emphasizing the importance of early development.

Battery Demand

• Battery demand: Lagged behind EV sales in 2020, with Europe showing the highest increase.
• Cost trends: Battery costs continue to fall, contributing to the competitiveness of EVs.

Micromobility and Fuel Cell Vehicles

• Micromobility: Gained popularity due to the pandemic, especially in urban areas.
• Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs): Korea leads in deployment, indicating a shift towards hydrogen-based solutions.

Policy Frameworks

Supportive Policies

• Regulatory frameworks: Many countries strengthened CO₂ emissions standards and zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandates before the pandemic.
• Government support: In 2020, governments spent USD 14 billion to support EV sales, up 25% from 2019, with Europe being the main source of incentives.
• Subsidies: Played a key role in maintaining EV sales during the economic downturn, with some countries extending or modifying their support schemes.

EV30@30 and Drive to Zero Campaigns

• EV30@30 Campaign: Aims to achieve a 30% sales share of EVs (excluding two/three-wheelers) by 2030. It includes 14 countries and 30 companies/organizations.
• Drive to Zero Campaign: Focuses on zero-emission commercial vehicles, with over 100 pledge partners, including nine national governments and various regional authorities.

Policy Actions

• Implementation actions: Include supporting charger deployment, encouraging public and private sector commitments, scaling up policy research, and training government officials.
• Pilot City Programme: Aims to establish 100 EV-friendly cities by 2023, with the IEA and Shanghai International Automobile City as joint secretariats.

Outlook for 2030

• EV growth: Expected to reach 145 million units in the Stated Policies Scenario, or 230 million in the Sustainable Development Scenario (excluding two/three-wheelers).
• GHG emissions: EVs could reduce emissions by over one-third in the Stated Policies Scenario and up to two-thirds in the Sustainable Development Scenario.
• Electricity mix: EVs will diversify the transport energy mix, but their impact on electricity consumption will remain minor in 2030.
• Battery demand: Is projected to grow twenty-fold by 2030, driven by the expansion of EV fleets and the need for sustainable battery production and recycling.

Key Policy Recommendations

• Decarbonizing electricity generation to maximize GHG emission benefits from EVs.
• Integrating EVs into power systems to ensure grid stability and support for increased charging demand.
• Building charging infrastructure to support the growing EV market, especially in the heavy-duty vehicle segment.
• Promoting sustainable battery manufacturing and recycling to ensure long-term viability and environmental benefits.

Conclusion

Despite the pandemic, the EV market has shown strong resilience, driven by supportive policies, falling battery costs, and increasing consumer interest. The report emphasizes the need for continued policy efforts to accelerate the transition to electric mobility, especially in the heavy-duty vehicle segment, and to address the challenges associated with reduced fuel tax revenue. The 2020s are expected to be a pivotal decade for the expansion of electric mobility globally, with the potential for significant environmental and economic benefits.