20230618-天风证券-非银金融行业研究周报_曙光初现_顺周期预期渐起_8页_708kb

Non-Bank Finance Industry Analysis Summary

Market Performance

• Overview: Non-bank finance sector showed gains with the non-bank index up 18% driven by cyclical recovery expectations and policy support. The insurance index fell 18% due to a mix of liability-side improvements (alpha) and cyclical factors (beta).

Insurance Sector Insights

• Alpha and Beta: Recovers from liability-side enhancements with pricing advantages despite potential interest rate declines. Future upside comes from asset-side improvements, including quality upgrades and valuation surprises.

Brokerage Sector Perspective

• Beta-Driven: Counted on economic cycle reversal expectations. Phase one involves policy anticipation, while phase two confirms earnings pickups through macro data. Focus stocks on thematic trends (e.g., China-specific governance, digitalization) and high leverage plays (e.g., brokerage/investment).

Key Data Highlights

• Trading Activity: Stock-based financing average daily trading value reached 112.81 billion yuan, up 129% week-over-week for June.
• Funding: Total stock-loan/stock-borrow balances held steady at 160 trillion yuan, unchanged from June start.
• Fund Flows: Expected net redemption in equity funds; reduced IPO activity year-to-date.

Current Valuations

• Brokers: PB multiple at 1.16x, 53rd percentile since 2018.
• Insurers: Key players like Ping An and China Life have PEV values at 0.58x and 0.79x, respectively, based on historical benchmarks.

Considerations and Recommendations

• Stock Suggestions: Target China Galaxy, China CITIC Securities, Ping An, and China Pacific for alpha and beta exposure.
• Risk Factors: Includes policy implementation risks, market volatility, and slower consumer reallocation than expected.

Market Data Summary (Selected Metrics)

• Insurance index: -18%
• Brokerage index: +18%
• Overall market improvements driven by cyclical recovery and policy easing.