德银-中国-宏观经济-中国数据2018：部门、企业与旅游业要点-20180119-180页_2mb

Summary of Deutsche Bank's Access China 2018 Conference

Core Content

Deutsche Bank's Access China 2018 conference, held in Beijing from 8 to 12 January 2018, attracted a significant number of participants, including 650+ investors, 180+ Chinese/Hong Kong corporates, and 50+ industry experts and macro speakers. The conference featured a variety of sessions and field trips, providing insights into key sectors of the Chinese economy. This document serves as a consolidation of the research presented by Deutsche Bank analysts, covering macroeconomic trends, company analyses, industry expert opinions, and tour highlights.

Main Sectors and Companies

Macro Highlights

• 27 guest speakers presented on economic sector and policy issues.

Autos/Infrastructure/Industrials/Transport

• Key companies: Minth Group, Geely Auto, SAIC Motor, Yutong Bus, Zhongsheng Group, JONHON Optronic, CRSC, CRRC, NARI Tech, CNBM, Conch Venture, Anhui Conch Cement, Shenzhen Inovance, Beijing Cap Int'l Airport, Sinotrans

Banking/Finance

• Key companies: Agri. Bank of China, Bank of China, Bank of Communications, China Cinda, China CITIC Bank, China Construction Bank, China Life, China Merchants Bank, China Minsheng Bank, Chongqing Rural Bank, CEB, CPIC, Ping An Bank, ICBC, NCI, PICC Group, PICC P&C, Ping An, CITIC Securities - H, China Galaxy Securities - H, Far East Horizon

Consumer/Lodging/Leisure/Healthcare

• Key companies: China Mengniu Diary, China Modern Dairy, Hengan Intl, Gome, Shanghai Jahwa, Tingyi, Yili, Samsonite International S.A., Wuliangye Yibin, China CYTS Tours, BTG Hotels, China Travel, TravelSky, 3SBio, CSPC Pharma, China TCM, Hengrui Medicine, Jointtown Pharmaceuticals, Sinopharm Group, Sino Biopharmaceutical, Tonghua Dongbao, The United Laboratories

Oil & Gas/Power/Utilities/Property

• Key companies: China Oilfield Services, CNOOC Ltd, PetroChina, Sinopec, Sinopec Engineering Group, SPC, BEWG, Beijing Enterprises, China Gas Holdings, China Everbright Int'l, China Everbright Greentech, Guangdong Investment, CR Gas, ENN Energy, Huadian Fuxin, Huaneng Power Int'l, Longyuan Power, Yangtze Power, China Vanke, COLI, Aoyuan, Logan, KWG, Sunac

Telecom/Internet/Technology/Metals & Mining

• Key companies: China Mobile Corp Ltd, China Telecom Corp Ltd, China Unicom, Hikvision Digital, O-Film, Sunyway, Kstar, Tencent, Angang Steel, Baosteel, China Coal Energy, BBMG, CNBM, Conch Venture, Anhui Conch Cement, Tianqi Lithium, West China Cement

Key Research Insights

Macro Presentations

• A wide range of macroeconomic topics were covered, including economic outlook, policy implications, and sector-specific analyses.

Industry Expert Insights

• Over 50 industry experts provided insights into various sectors such as automobiles, consumer, healthcare, energy, industrials, property, power and environmental, technology, and transportation.

Company Analyses

• Each company analysis includes:
  • Stock Code
  • Target Price (TP)
  • Recommendation
  • Current Price (CP)

Key Sectors and Companies

Automobiles & Components

• Minth Group: TP HKD 47.60, Buy, HKD 48.15
• Geely Auto: TP HKD 29.30, Hold, HKD 27.75
• SAIC Motor: TP CNY 30.50, Hold, CNY 33.88
• Yutong Bus: TP CNY 26.60, Buy, CNY 24.24
• Zhongsheng Group: TP HKD 15.7, Hold, HKD 20.85

Banking / Finance

• Agri. Bank of China: TP HKD 4.73, Buy, HKD 3.97
• Bank of China: TP HKD 5.25, Buy, HKD 3.99
• Bank of Communications: TP HKD 7.29, Hold, HKD 6.03
• China Cinda: TP HKD 3.75, Buy, HKD 3.02
• China CITIC Bank: TP HKD 5.28, Hold, HKD 5.44
• China Construction Bank: TP HKD 8.87, Buy, HKD 7.58
• China Life: TP HKD 28.50, Hold, HKD 24.35
• China Merchants Bank: TP HKD 31.38, Hold, HKD 32.85
• China Minsheng Bank: TP HKD 8.68, Hold, HKD 8.07
• Chongqing Rural Bank: TP HKD 7.00, Buy, HKD 5.91
• CEB: TP HKD 3.72, Hold, HKD 3.74
• CPIC: TP HKD 51.00, Buy, HKD 37.35
• Ping An Bank: TP CNY 10.89, Hold, CNY 12.96
• ICBC: TP HKD 7.52, Buy, HKD 6.53
• NCI: TP HKD 74.60, Buy, HKD 53.30
• PICC Group: TP HKD 4.50, Hold, HKD 4.09
• PICC P&C: TP HKD 16.60, Hold, HKD 15.80
• Ping An: TP HKD 104.10, Buy, HKD 82.25
• CITIC Securities - H: TP HKD 21.10, Buy, HKD 17.54
• China Galaxy Securities - H: TP HKD 8.70, Buy, HKD 6.13
• Far East Horizon: TP HKD 8.80, Buy, HKD 7.15

Consumer

• China Mengniu Diary: TP HKD 26.80, Buy, HKD 24.20
• China Modern Dairy: TP HKD 1.70, Hold, HKD 1.48
• Hengan Intl: TP HKD 97.29, Buy, HKD 81.35
• Gome: TP HKD 0.82, Hold, HKD 0.97
• Shanghai Jahwa: TP CNY 30.04, Hold, CNY 35.16
• Tingyi: TP HKD 13.28, Hold, HKD 15.50
• Yili: TP CNY 35.00, Buy, CNY 34.62
• Samsonite International S.A.: TP HKD 39.80, Buy, HKD 35.00
• Wuliangye Yibin: TP HKD 98.00, Buy, HKD 88.90

Lodging/Leisure/Healthcare

• China CYTS Tours: TP CNY 20.00, Hold, CNY 21.86
• BTG Hotels: TP CNY 35.00, Buy, CNY 29.35
• China Travel (HK): TP HKD 3.10, Buy, HKD 2.79
• TravelSky: TP HKD 25.70, Buy, HKD 25.10
• 3SBio: TP HKD 19.00, Buy, HKD 16.70
• China TCM: TP HKD 4.70, Hold, HKD 4.55
• CSPC Pharma: TP HKD 19.10, Buy, HKD 17.98
• Hengrui Medicine: TP CNY 78.10, Buy, CNY 71.25
• Jointtown Pharmaceuticals: TP CNY 30.00, Buy, CNY 19.01
• Sinopharm Group: TP HKD 34.30, Hold, HKD 34.20
• Sino Biopharmaceutical: TP HKD 16.80, Buy, CNY 14.10
• Tonghua Dongbao: TP CNY 26.80, Buy, CNY 24.16
• The United Laboratories: TP HKD 6.30, Hold, HKD 6.27

Infrastructure / Industrials

• JONHON Optronic: TP CNY 43.00, Buy, CNY 38.55
• CRSC: TP HKD 8.30, Buy, HKD 6.31
• CRRC: TP HKD 9.00, Buy, HKD 8.45
• NARI Tech: TP CNY 20.20, Buy, CNY 17.81
• Shenzhen Inovance: TP HKD 34.30, Buy, HKD 28.30

Oil & Gas / Power / Utilities / Property

• China Oilfield Services: TP HKD 9.13, Sell, HKD 8.80
• CNOOC Ltd: TP HKD 13.82, Buy, HKD 12.00
• PetroChina: TP HKD 5.77, Hold, HKD 5.80
• Sinopec: TP HKD 7.44, Buy, HKD 6.23
• Sinopec Engineering Group: TP HKD 9.40, Buy, HKD 8.37
• SPC: TP HKD 5.20, Buy, HKD 4.78 / TP CNY 5.30, Sell, CNY 7.05
• BEWG: TP HKD 7.40, Buy, HKD 6.06
• Beijing Enterprises: TP HKD 53.80, Buy, HKD 46.15
• China Gas Holdings: TP HKD 23.80, Hold, HKD 21.55
• China Everbright Int'l: TP HKD 13.50, Buy, HKD 11.14
• China Everbright Greentech: TP HKD 7.90, Buy, HKD 7.46
• Guangdong Investment: TP HKD 13.2, Buy, HKD 10.38
• CR Gas: TP HKD 35.40, Buy, HKD 26.25
• ENN Energy: TP HKD 65.50, Buy, HKD 52.20
• Huadian Fuxin: TP HKD 2.20, Buy, HKD 2.03
• Huaneng Power Int'l: TP HKD 6.00, Buy, HKD 5.10
• Longyuan Power: TP HKD 7.40, Buy, HKD 5.67
• Yangtze Power: TP CNY 18.30, Buy, CNY 15.98
• China Vanke: TP HKD 41.38, Buy, HKD 37.75 / TP CNY 34.53, Buy, CNY 35.99
• COLI: TP HKD 30.63, Buy, HKD 29.05
• Aoyuan: TP HKD 30.00, Hold, HKD 27.16
• Logan: TP HKD 9.66, Buy, HKD 8.66
• KWG: TP HKD 12.88, Buy, HKD 11.54
• Sunac: TP HKD 46.00, Buy, HKD 39.05

Technology

• Hikvision Digital: TP CNY 43.00, Buy, CNY 41.62
• O-Film: TP CNY 23.00, Hold, CNY 20.33
• Sunyway: TP CNY 60.00, Buy, CNY 48.87
• Kstar: TP CNY 21.00, Buy, CNY 17.38

Telecom

• China Mobile Corp Ltd: TP HKD 112.00, Buy, HKD 77.40
• China Telecom Corp Ltd: TP HKD 4.55, Buy, HKD 3.76
• China Unicom: TP HKD 15.50, Hold, HKD 10.74

Internet

• Tencent: TP HKD 450.00, Buy, HKD 438.60

Tour Highlights

• China Handset field trip: Highlighted Sunway, O-Film, and AAC Technologies, with positive outlooks and valuations.
• Semiconductor trip: Highlighted SMIC with a note on operating loss expectations.
• Luxury consumption tour: Highlighted the growth of the luxury market in China, with insights on daigou and online shopping platforms.
• Auto tour: Focused on Great Wall Motor and SAIC Motor, with visits to plants and management meetings.
• Energy tour: Covered major refiners and discussed the oil and gas sector.
• Environmental tour: Highlighted projects by Beijing Enterprises Water, China Everbright Greentech, and New Universe Environmental.

Research Team

• Michael Tong, CFA: Head of China/Hong Kong research and Regional Utilities/Renewable/Environmental Research team.
• Michael Spencer, PhD: Global Head of Economics Research and Chief Economist in Asia Pacific.
• Zhiwei Zhang, PhD: Chief China Economist and Head of China Equity Strategy.
• Yi Xiong, PhD: China Economist with prior experience at the International Monetary Fund.
• Anne Ling: Head of Asia Consumer and Media Research with extensive experience in the sector.
• Jack Hu, PhD: Head of APAC Healthcare Research with experience in biotech and oncology marketing.
• Sky Hong: Head of DB's industrials research for Asia ex Japan.
• Nick Zheng: Focus on China Industrials with a strong track record in research.
• Esther Chwei: Head of Asia Insurance research with buy-side and sell-side experience.
• Lexie Zhou: Member of Asia Insurance research team with financial engineering background.
• Han Joon Kim: Regional coverage of North Asian internet stocks with experience in corporate development and sell-side analysis.
• Eileen Deng: Part of Asia TMT research team with experience in both sell-side and buy-side.

The conference provided a comprehensive overview of the Chinese market across various sectors, with detailed company analyses, expert insights, and field trip takeaways.