2025-06-12-花旗集团-酩悦·轩尼诗-路易·威登集团（LVMH）_路威酩轩（LVMH.PA）模型更新_12页_578kb

Summary of LVMH Citigroup Research Report (13 June 2025)

• Rating and Target Price: Citi maintains a Buy rating for LVMH, with a target price reduced to €657 from the previous level. This adjustment reflects revised financial estimates due to challenges in the global luxury market.

• Financial Estimates: For FY25E and FY26E, group sales estimates have been reduced by 8% each year. EBIT and EPS are expected to decrease by 15% and 16% for FY25E, and 13% and 15% for FY26E, respectively. This is driven by 20-26% lower FX growth assumptions and global demand weakness, as detailed in the report.

• Valuation Approach: Uses a sum-of-the-parts methodology, assigning different multiples to LVMH's divisions. Key assumptions include a premium for the Louis Vuitton brand due to its dominant scale and profitability, along with relative valuations for Wines & Spirits, using a Diageo put option analog, and other smaller divisions.

• Risks: Major risks include macroeconomic shifts affecting consumer spending, reliance on tourism (especially for brands like Louis Vuitton), currency headwinds, and counterfeit issues. Specific vulnerabilities stem from over 50% of profits from Louis Vuitton, which could be impacted by brand fatigue and consumer taste changes.

• Financial Data: Provides detailed projections from 2024-2027 for sales, earnings, and ratios. Key metrics show declining net margins and PE ratios in some periods, offset by growth in specific areas like Watches & Jewelry. Free cash flow remains strong, supporting dividends.

This summary captures the core analysis, highlighting Citi's positive outlook despite lowered forecast sensitivity.