2025-05-19-Jefferies-海科公司（HEI）_第二财季预览预计FSG将再次闪耀_27页_465kb

Heico Corporation (HEI) Equity Research Summary

Rating and Target:

• Rating: Buy
• Target Price: $320 (+16% from current price $275.39)
• Key Forecast:
  • FQ2 EPS: $1.01 (vs. consensus $1.03), slightly below expectations due to lower ETG growth and interest expense.
  • FY25E EPS: $4.45 (up 10%) driven by M&A contributions from FSG.

Business Segments:

• FSG (Flight Support): Expected organic growth of 12% in FY25E, supported by aging aircraft fleet and PMA (Parts Manufacturer Approval) market expansion, including defense contracts.
• ETG (Electronic Tech): Organic growth likely flat in FQ2, potentially slowed by macroeconomic uncertainties in Other Electronics.
• Margin Impact: FSG margins improve, while ETG faces pressure due to overhead costs.

Financials & Capital:

• FCF Expectation: $730MM in FY25E (~117% conversion to net income).
• M&A Activity: Recent acquisitions (e.g., Rosen Aviation, Millennium, Wencor) contribute 23% to growth but dilution may affect ETG margins temporarily.
• Valuation: Trades at a premium to peers (127% on 2026E P/E), reflecting M&A-driven upside.

Key Risks:

• FQ2 revenue expectations moderately below consensus.
• Macroeconomic uncertainty affecting Other Electronics recovery.
• Historical underperformance of HEI shares despite strong earnings beats (44% of beats lead to negative price reactions).

Analyst Recommendations:

• 44% of earnings beats result in negative share price reactions historically.
• Analysts emphasize FSG’s tailwinds (e.g., PMA gains, defense opportunities) as major growth drivers, while cautioning on ETG challenges.

Contact:

• Sheila Kahyaoglu (Analyst)
• Conor Walters (Associate Analyst)
• Key metrics and market context provided for investment decision-making.