2024-03-21-莱坊-Melbourne_CBD_Office_Market_March_2024_9页_1mb

报告摘要

Melbourne CBD Office Market Summary

Key Highlights

Market Conditions: Melbourne CBD's office market experienced increased vacancy rates and subdued net absorption in 2023, but signs point to market stabilization and awakening in early 2024.

1. Vacancy & Absorption

Overall Vacancy: 16.4%, the highest since 1997, rising 1.5% in the last six months after reaching a near-record low of 3.2%.
Premium Grade Vacancy: Decreased to 11.2% from 12.2% (Q4'22), while Secondary Grade vacancy rose to 22.3% from 20.4% (Q4'22).
Net Absorption (H1 2023): -59,652sqm overall. Premium Grade absorbed +24,397sqm (an improvement from H1 2023's -59,652sqm).
2023 Net Absorption: Premium Grade (+12,304sqm), A-Grade (-15,214sqm), Secondary Grade stagnant.

2. Supply & Development Outlook

Supply Pipeline Adjustment: New supply projects were delayed or pushed back due to lack of pre-commits. Notable delays include:
- 600 Collins Street: Originally due 2026, now 2028+.
- 555 Collins Street Stage 2 & 60 & 52 Collins Street: Due 2027, now 2028.
Net Supply Projection: Minimal supply expected over the next five years, leading to a peak vacancy rate this year, followed by slow declines in vacancy.

3. Rental Trends

Prime Face Rent: Held steady at $700/sqm in 2023 (+2.0% y/y). Growth selective, limited to the Eastern Core and Docklands.
Prime Incentives: Average at 46.0% by end of 2023, up from 40.5% in 2023 start.
Net Effective Rent: Prime fell -7.0%, Secondary -17.0%. Hardest hit: Spencer & Flagstaff precincts.
Expectations: Incentives are peaking. Short-term, face rents hold flat. From 2025, supply tightening may reduce incentives, boosting effective rents.

4. Investment Activity

Investment Volumes: 2023 totalled $541.1m, down significantly from 2022's $3.5bn and 10-year avg.
Yields: Prime up to 6.25%, Secondary up to 6.98%. Offshore investors dominated (80% of transactions).

5. Sub-Precinct (Southbank & Docklands)

Vacancy: Docklands rose to 14.6% (from historic low), Southbank near 17.0%.
Docklands Rents: Held at $620/sqm, incentives at 50%+. Southbank premium at $640/sqm, incentives below CBD avg (40%).
Net Absorption: Docklands positive (+24,450sqm over 2 years). Renewals (e.g., AGL at 699 Bourke St) highlight resilience.

Outlook

Market Awakening: Enquiries in 2024 are near pre-pandemic levels, signalling bottoming of demand/TEN leasing activity accelerating.
Supply & Vacancy Peak: Expect vacancy to peak this year, followed by a slow decline. Secondary properties more vulnerable.
Capital Values: Prime CBD prime offices fell 22.5% from their 2Q22 peak. Recovery expected post-2024 if supply stabilizes.