2025-06-14-高盛-秘鲁_4月经济活动回升；假日需求推动服务业发展（特列斯）_5页_164kb

Peru Economic Report Summary: April 2025 GDP Rebound and Outlook

Key Findings

• Real GDP Growth: April's year-on-year (yoy) real GDP growth was 1.4%, below the Bloomberg consensus of 2.0% yoy, but seasonally adjusted (sa) growth was 1.5% yoy, indicating a slight rebound. Sequential monthly-on-month (mom) sa growth reversed from -0.1% in March to +0.4%, showing stronger momentum.
• Economic Composition: Services drove growth, with seasonal demand from Holy Week boosting sectors like restaurants, hotels, and transport. Primary industries were mixed: agriculture declined (-4.0% mom sa), while fishing surged (23.4% mom sa); mining and hydrocarbons were stable. Secondary industries saw manufacturing grow (4.8% mom sa) but construction weaken (-0.7% mom sa).

Unemployment and Employment

• Unemployment rate in May fell to 5.6%, the lowest level since 2015, with employment increasing by 205,500 jobs in the Lima metro area since May 2024.

Forward Outlook

• Growth is expected to slow in coming months due to fading seasonal demand and potential political volatility. 2025 carryover growth is projected at 2.6%, with an annual GDP forecast of 3.0%. Risks include reduced external demand, but factors like stable inflation and strong labor markets support activity.