2022-03-13-欧盟委员会-2022年冬季欧洲经济预测（英）_58页_1mb

The European Economic Forecast for Winter 2022 (Interim) projects a moderate recovery in economic growth for the EU and euro area, with growth at 4.0% for the EU and 3.5% for the euro area in 2022, down from the Autumn 2021 forecast. This rebound is expected to gain momentum from the second quarter of 2022, driven by easing pandemic restrictions, normalizing supply conditions, and supportive financing environments. However, short-term headwinds include the resurgence of Omicron, intensified supply chain disruptions, rising energy prices, and geopolitical tensions.

Inflation is forecast at 4.8% for the euro area and 3.9% for the EU in 2022, peaking in early 2022 before declining to 1.7% for the euro area and 1.9% for the EU in 2023. The upward bias stems from energy costs, broadening price pressures, and potential second-round effects from cost passes to consumers.

The balance of risks to growth is broadly even, with upside risks from stronger-than-anticipated consumption and resilience from the Recovery and Resilience Facility, balanced against downside risks from prolonged pandemic impacts, supply chain issues, and geopolitical uncertainties. Inflation risks remain tilted upward due to persistent cost pressures and potential wage-demand spirals.

National forecasts vary, with growth expected to range from 2.5% to 5.5% across Member States, influenced by pandemic severity, vaccination rates, and economic structures. Finland, Greece, and others show specific vulnerabilities, while inflation differs widely, with countries like Estonia and Romania facing higher year-on-year rates.

Key assumptions include stable exchange rates based on average 2022 data, accommodative monetary policy despite inflation spikes, and continued external challenges. The outlook emphasizes a prolonged expansion supported by fiscal stimulus, though vulnerabilities such as financial market strains and household purchasing power erosion persist.