2025-05-20-Jefferies-美乐棵（SMG）_解读家得宝第一季度业绩_7页_110kb

Scotts Miracle-Gro Equity Research Summary

Overview

Jefferies reiterates a "Buy" rating on Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) based on The Home Depot's (HD) first-quarter results and commentary on consumer behavior. The analysis suggests that consumer "trade-up" behavior supports SMG's prospects, weakening the bear thesis on private label competition in the lawn and garden sector.

Key Findings

• HD 1Q Results: HD comps were slightly negative overall, but two of six categories (Indoor and Outdoor Garden) showed positive year-over-year growth. The remaining categories were flat or negative.
• Consumer Behavior: HD management indicated sustained momentum in April, with U.S. comps at +1.8%, adjusting to +2.5% for Easter effects. Consumers are trading up for innovative products, benefiting SMG by reducing pressure on branded products from private labels.
• Rating Justification: The "Buy" rating is upheld because consumer trade-up behavior observed by HD indicates strong demand for premium products, countering concerns about private label trade-down in lawn and garden.
• Price Target: $62 per share, based on ~10.5x EV/EBITDA for CY25 estimates, with upside potential despite risks.
• Downside Risks: Includes retail shelf-space loss, excessive private label adoption, accelerating shift to direct-to-home lawn care, and unseasonal weather affecting sales.

Analyst Certification

Jonathan Matuszewski and Randal J. Konik certify that the views reflect their personal opinions and are not tied to compensation. Jefferies research includes fundamental analysis and considers risks, with a focus on investment merits.

Rating History

SMG's rating has been "Buy" since April 30, 2025, with a price target of $62. Previous ratings include "Hold" and "Buy" dates reflecting market fluctuations.

Company Context

SMG is the leading U.S. marketer of lawn and garden products, with key segments including U.S. Consumer, Hawthorne, and Other, along with exclusive agreements for Roundup. Valuation methodology includes DCF and EV/EBITDA models.

See attached full report for details.