20110531-IEA-Technology_Roadmap_-_Geothermal_Heat_and_Power_52页_4mb

Technology Roadmap: Geothermal Heat and Power

Core Content

This document outlines the International Energy Agency (IEA)'s Geothermal Energy Roadmap, detailing the potential for geothermal energy to play a significant role in the global energy transition towards low-carbon, sustainable energy solutions. The roadmap was prepared in 2011 and is part of a series of IEA roadmaps aimed at guiding the development and deployment of key energy technologies.

Main Objectives

• Promote energy security through reliable and ample energy supplies.
• Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by increasing the use of low-carbon technologies.
• Enhance transparency in international energy markets.
• Support global collaboration on energy technology, especially in emerging economies.

Key Findings

• Geothermal energy can provide low-carbon base-load power and heat from various sources, including:

  • High-temperature hydrothermal resources
  • Deep aquifer systems with low and medium temperatures
  • Hot rock resources through Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS)

• By 2050, the roadmap envisions:

  • 1400 TWh/year of geothermal electricity generation, which would represent 3.5% of global electricity production.
  • 5.8 EJ/year of geothermal heat use, equivalent to 3.9% of projected final energy for heat.

• By 2030, more than half of the projected increase in geothermal energy use will come from hot rock resources, primarily through EGS. This requires substantially higher research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) investment to make EGS commercially viable.

• Geothermal heat can be used at a wide range of temperatures for various applications, such as:

  • Space and district heating
  • Spa and swimming pool heating
  • Greenhouse and soil heating
  • Aquaculture pond heating
  • Industrial process heating
  • Snow melting

• Ground source heat pumps (GSHPs), while important, are excluded from the roadmap due to their different concept and market focus.

Main Views

• Geothermal energy is a renewable and sustainable source, with a constant terrestrial heat flow that can be replenished over time.

• Economic and technical barriers need to be addressed to expand geothermal energy use. These include:

  • High costs of resource development
  • Distance from demand centers
  • Regulatory and market challenges

• Policy and regulatory frameworks are crucial for enabling geothermal development. These should include:

  • Transparent regulations
  • Economic incentives
  • Support for RD&D
  • International collaboration

• Public engagement and awareness are necessary to support the development and deployment of geothermal technologies, especially in developing countries.

Key Information

• IEA member countries include: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea (Republic of), Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, and United States.

• The roadmap is informed by several existing regional and national roadmaps, including:

  • RE-thinking 2050: A 100% Renewable Energy Vision for the European Union (EREC, 2010)
  • The Future of Geothermal Energy: Impact of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) on the United States in the 21st Century (MIT, 2006)
  • Australian geothermal roadmap (DRET, 2008)
  • Energy [R]evolution: A sustainable World Energy Outlook (EREC/Greenpeace, 2010)
  • Energy Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050 (Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2010)

• The roadmap is structured into four parts:

  1. Geothermal Energy Today – covers current resources, technologies, and economics.
  2. Vision for Deployment and CO₂ Abatement – outlines the projected growth and emission reductions.
  3. Technology Development: Actions and Milestones – identifies necessary steps for technological advancement.
  4. Policy Framework: Actions and Milestones – details the policy and regulatory support needed.

Key Actions for the Next 10 Years

• Establish medium-term and long-term targets for geothermal technologies to increase investor confidence.
• Introduce differentiated economic incentive schemes for geothermal heat and power, phasing out as technologies become competitive.
• Develop publicly available databases and tools for geothermal resource assessment and reservoir management.
• Streamline and time-effective procedures for issuing permits for geothermal development.
• Provide sustained RD&D funding to plan and develop at least 50 more EGS pilot plants.
• Expand knowledge of EGS technology to improve production, resource sustainability, and HSE performance.
• Support developing countries by addressing economic and non-economic barriers to geothermal development.

Conclusion

• Concerted action by scientists, industry, governments, and the public is required to ensure geothermal energy can claim its place in the coming energy revolution.
• A holistic policy framework is needed to address both technical and economic barriers.
• International collaboration is essential for the successful deployment of geothermal technologies, especially in emerging economies.

References

• Box 1: Geothermal energy: renewable energy source and sustainable energy use
• Box 2: Ground source heat pumps
• Box 3: Enhanced geothermal systems
• Box 4: Cost of financing geothermal plants
• Box 5: Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) 2010
• Box 6: CO₂ emission reductions from geothermal electricity
• Box 7: Public geothermal information systems
• Box 8: Exploration of supercritical fluids
• Box 9: Geothermal feed-in tariffs in Germany
• Box 10: Protocol for EGS development
• Box 11: Case study: geothermal energy deployment in Indonesia
• Box 12: IPCC SSREN projection of ground source heat pumps

Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: Global development installed capacity geothermal power (MWₑ)

• Figure 2: World resource map of convective hydrothermal reservoirs

• Figure 3: World map of deep aquifer systems

• Figure 4: An enhanced geothermal system in pictures

• Figure 5: Geothermal resources in the United States, including favourability of EGS

• Figure 6: Production costs of geothermal electricity (USD/MWhₑ)

• Figure 7: Production costs of geothermal heat use (USD/MWht)

• Figure 8: Roadmap vision of geothermal power production by region (TWh/y)

• Figure 9: Growth of geothermal power capacities by technology (GW)

• Figure 10: CO₂ emission reductions from geothermal electricity by 2050

• Figure 11: Roadmap vision of direct use of geothermal heat by region, excluding ground source heat pumps (EJ/y)

• Figure 12: Range of reduction of average levelised costs of electricity production in hydrothermal flash plants and binary plants

• Figure 13: Underground temperature in Germany at 2500 m below sea level

• Figure 14: Conceptual model of an industrial EGS plant

• Table 1: Summary of actions to be led by stakeholders