2025-05-13-世界银行-弥合差距_南亚的收入动员（英）_44页_1mb

Bridging the Gap: Revenue Mobilization in South Asia

Summary

1. Introduction

• South Asian countries, including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, face significant fiscal challenges, notably low tax revenues, heavy debt, and high debt service burdens.
• On average during 2019–23, tax revenues in South Asia totaled 18% of GDP, substantially below the 24% average among emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs).

2. Key Stylized Facts

• Low Revenue-to-GDP Ratio: South Asian tax revenues are the lowest among EMDE regions, reflected by a 10 percentage point gap compared to EMDE averages across countries.
• Sufficient Tax Buoyancy: South Asian countries' tax responsiveness to economic growth varies; however, Pakistan's buoyancy falls below the EMDE average, suggesting reliance on low-growth sectors.
• Dependence on Indirect Taxes: South Asian countries derive shares of tax revenues from taxes on trade and consumption, which are often regressive and create disincentives to trade.
• High Tax Rates: Tax rates, particularly on consumption and trade, are high in South Asia. Trade and consumption tax rates exceed EMDE averages except Bhutan.

3. Tax Revenue Shortfalls

• Employing stochastic frontier analysis, this paper estimates revenue shortfalls (the difference between potential and actual revenue) accounting for tax rates and potential tax bases.
• Across five main tax categories (personal income tax, corporate income tax, consumption tax, trade tax),
  - Personal and corporate income tax shortfalls are extensive, ranging from 0.53 to 1.56 percentage points of GDP.
  - Consumption and trade tax shortfalls also show significant gaps, with the highest in certain countries like Afghanistan and Pakistan.

4. Tax Gap Correlates

• Country characteristics—including pervasive informality, large agriculture sectors, and underdeveloped financial systems—explain only a small portion (up to one-third in some countries) of the tax revenue shortfalls.
• After accounting for these factors, significant tax gaps remain, averaging above the EMDE level. For example:
  • In Nepal, high country correlations nearly account for the entire shortfall.
  • Governance quality (e.g., bureaucracy and corruption) partially accounts for gaps, but reforms remain underutilized.

5. Policy Options

• Tax Policy:
  • Rationalize exemptions, harmonize tax rates.
  • Increase the progressivity of indirect and direct taxes to improve equity.
  • Consider wealth and property taxes to raise revenue from the affluent.
  • Strengthen anti-evasion measures and international tax cooperation.
• Tax Administration:
  • Invest in digital tools to enhance reporting and enforcement.
  • Strengthen the deployment and incentives for tax officials—interventions like penalties and audits show significant revenue gains (up to 98.58% in some cases).
• Pollution Pricing:
  • High pollution levels in South Asia provide an opportunity to raise revenues simultaneously by improving environmental outcomes through carbon taxes or emissions trading systems.

Key Conclusion: South Asian countries can significantly improve revenue mobilization by streamlining tax systems, enhancing tax administration, and implementing environmental taxes, thereby addressing fiscal deficits and funding public services like health and education.