2025-05-22-Jefferies-耐克（NKE）_只管买入_霍卡的困境是耐克的机遇_7页_103kb

Jefferies Equity Research: Nike (NKE) - Buy Recommendation Summary

Rating and Price Overview

• Recommendation: BUY
• Current Price: $61.32
• Price Target: $115.00 (up 88% from current price)
• 52-Week Range: $52.28 to $98.04

Flash Note Highlights

• HOKA brand sales growth decelerated to +10% YoY (Q4), down from +24% (Q3) and +35% (Q2).
• Nike's innovation and increased wholesale penetration (e.g., Amazon) are expected to shift market share gains toward Nike.
• Despite trading near a 15-year low on EV/sales basis, Nike remains a buy due to strong fundamentals.

Core Analysis
HOKA's slowdown is attributed to Nike's strategic actions, with market share likely favoring Nike in the coming period. This follows a broader deceleration in HOKA's growth trajectory over recent quarters.

Company Strengths

• Global brand recognition drives market presence and ubiquity.
• Dominates athletic footwear (top in running styles) and apparel markets, with a diverse product portfolio appealing to broad consumer bases.
• Competitive advantage stems from established brand identity and lifestyle positioning, unlike rivals such as Onon (limited apparel) or Lululemon (minimal footwear).
• Nike's Total Addressable Market (TAM) remains substantial due to varied price points, while competitors' higher prices limit reach.

Key Rationale for Buy

• CEO Elliott Hill's strategy to reinvigorate wholesale channels, including partnerships like URBN, positions Nike for growth.
• Apparel momentum is expected to rise with the launch of the Nike-SKIMS collaboration.
• Nike's leadership in the sneaker market, with limited competition, supports continued growth despite HOKA's slowdown.

Risks

• Cost inflation, waning product cycles, and FX headwinds could impact performance.
• Valuation based on ~33x P/E for FY'27, with overall company stability a key factor.

Valuation

• Price target set at $115 based on forward P/E multiples and market conditions.

Summary Conclusion
Jefferies analysts recommend buying Nike, citing expected market-share gains and global brand strength, despite recent HOKA slowdown and trading lows. Risks include macroeconomic factors, but the company's diversified approach and competitive edge support the buy thesis.