20160808-思科-Cisco_Visual_Networking_Index__Global_Mobile_Data_Traffic_Forecast_Update,_2015–2020_39页_1mb

Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2015-2020

Core Content Overview

The Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update provides comprehensive projections and analysis of global mobile data traffic growth from 2015 to 2020. It outlines the trends and drivers behind this growth, emphasizing the role of smart devices, network advancements, and the increasing reliance on Wi-Fi offloading.

Key Statistics for 2015

• Global Mobile Data Traffic: Reached 3.7 exabytes per month in 2015, up from 2.1 exabytes in 2014, representing a 74% increase.
• Growth Over Time:
  • Mobile data traffic has grown 4,000-fold over the past 10 years.
  • It has grown almost 400-million-fold over the past 15 years.
• 4G Traffic: Exceeded 3G traffic for the first time in 2015.
  • 4G represented 14% of mobile connections but accounted for 47% of traffic, while 3G represented 34% of connections and 43% of traffic.
  • 4G connections generated six times more traffic on average than non-4G connections.
• Wi-Fi Offload:
  • 51% of mobile data traffic was offloaded to the fixed network via Wi-Fi or femtocells.
  • 3.9 exabytes per month were offloaded in 2015.
• Device Growth:
  • 563 million mobile devices and connections were added in 2015.
  • Total global mobile devices and connections reached 7.9 billion in 2015.
• Smart Devices:
  • Represented 36% of total devices and connections in 2015, but will reach 67% by 2020.
  • Accounted for 89% of mobile data traffic in 2015, increasing to 98% by 2020.
  • Smart devices generated 14 times more traffic than non-smart devices in 2015, and this ratio will increase to 23 times by 2020.
• Device Traffic:
  • Smartphones generated 929 MB per month in 2015, up from 648 MB in 2014.
  • Tablets generated 2,576 MB per month, or 2.8 times more than smartphones.
  • PCs on the mobile network generated 2.7 GB per month, or 2.9 times more than smartphones.
• IPv6 Capabilities:
  • 34% of mobile devices and connections were IPv6-capable in 2015.
  • This is expected to grow to 66% by 2020, with 92% of smartphones and tablets being IPv6-capable.
  • IPv6 traffic is projected to grow to 16.6 exabytes per month by 2020, representing 54% of total mobile data traffic.

Key Projections Through 2020

• Global Mobile Data Traffic: Will reach 30.6 exabytes per month by 2020, an eightfold increase from 2015.
• CAGR: Mobile data traffic will grow at a 53% CAGR from 2015 to 2020.
• Device Growth:
  • 11.6 billion mobile-connected devices by 2020, including M2M modules.
  • 1.5 devices per capita by 2020.
• Smart Devices and Connections:
  • Will represent 67% of total devices and connections by 2020.
  • Smart devices will account for 98% of mobile data traffic by 2020.
• 4G Growth:
  • 4G connections will represent 40.5% of total mobile connections by 2020.
  • 4G traffic will account for 72% of total mobile data traffic by 2020.
  • A 4G connection will generate 3.3 times more traffic than a non-4G connection.
• Video Traffic:
  • Mobile video traffic accounted for 55% of total mobile data traffic in 2015.
  • Will represent 75% of total traffic by 2020, growing 11-fold over the forecast period.
• Tablets and PCs:
  • Mobile-connected tablets will reach 133 million in 2015, growing to 2.6 exabytes per month by 2020 (a 7.6-fold increase).
  • 125 million PCs on the mobile network in 2015, generating 2.7 GB per month of traffic.
• Regional Growth:
  • Middle East and Africa will have the highest CAGR at 71%.
  • Asia Pacific will account for 45% of global mobile traffic by 2020.
  • North America and Western Europe will have the fastest growth in smart devices (22% and 14% CAGR, respectively).

Major Trends

1. Adapting to Smarter Mobile Devices

• Smart devices and connections are driving traffic growth.
• By 2020, smart devices will make up 67% of total devices and 98% of traffic.
• M2M connections will grow to 26% of total devices and connections, with a 38% CAGR.
• Phablets are a new category of devices, contributing to the shift in device mix.
• Tablets and M2M will be the next major growth segments after smartphones.

2. Defining Cell Network Advances—2G, 3G, and 4G (5G Perspectives)

• 4G is becoming the dominant network type.
• By 2020, 4G will represent 40.5% of connections and 72% of traffic.
• LPWA (Low-Power Wide-Area) connections will grow to 7.4% of M2M connections by 2020.
• 5G is expected to provide high bandwidth, ultra-low latency, and broader coverage, primarily driven by IoE applications.
• 5G deployment is anticipated to begin in 2020 and beyond, with regulatory, spectrum, and ROI challenges to overcome.

3. Measuring Mobile IoE Adoption—M2M and Emerging Wearables

• M2M connections are growing rapidly, expected to reach 3.1 billion by 2020.
• Wearable devices are a key segment of the IoE, with 97 million generating 15 petabytes of traffic in 2015.
• These devices can be worn and connect to the network directly or through other devices like smartphones.
• M2M and wearable devices are becoming more bandwidth-intensive, indicating broader adoption and integration into daily life.

Summary of Growth Drivers

• Smartphone and tablet proliferation.
• Increased bandwidth and speed on mobile networks.
• Wi-Fi offloading reducing cellular load.
• IPv6 adoption to support growing number of devices.
• IoE applications driving demand for advanced connectivity.

Conclusion

The Cisco VNI Mobile Forecast highlights the exponential growth of global mobile data traffic, driven by the proliferation of smart devices, increased network speeds, and the adoption of advanced technologies like IPv6 and 5G. By 2020, the world will see a 53% CAGR in mobile data traffic, with 4G becoming the dominant network type and video accounting for 75% of all mobile data. The shift toward smart devices and IoE will reshape the future of mobile networking, requiring more robust and scalable infrastructure.