2025-05-23-Jefferies-萌芽社交（SPT）_模型更新——2025年目标看似可实现_因为运行增长率不再下降_16页_554kb

Summary of Sprout Social Equity Research

Overview:
Sprout Social is a social media management platform that helps businesses consolidate and manage their social media presence. It offers tools for customer engagement, lead generation, brand management, and analytics, with over 30,000 customers globally. The company is focused on enterprise growth and upselling.

Financial Summary:

• 2025 Revenue Estimate: $453 million (down from $465M, growth of 11.6% YoY).
• Price Target: $29 (reduced from $42).
• Adjusted EPS: $0.73 for 2025.
• EV/Revenue Multiple: 2.6x, considered attractive.
• Guidance: Run-rate revenue growth stabilizing, beat consensus for the quarter. Margins improving due to operating leverage.

Growth Potential:

• Growth is decelerating but stabilizing; expected to accelerate in 2026.
• Focus on enterprise customers and higher-value contracts (e.g., ACV per customer grew 16% YoY).
• Upselling efforts are key; sales force expansion shows demand support.

Risks:

• Economic uncertainty and potential downturn.
• Challenges in customer acquisition and retention.
• Increased competition and difficulty in new customer sales.
• Valuation dependent on growth outlook; peers show mixed performance.

Investment Recommendation:

• Maintain "Buy" rating with a path to higher growth by 2026.
• Suitable for patient investors seeking exposure to secular tailwinds in social media platforms.
• Risk is macro-driven, not idiosyncratic, with a lower bottom than previously feared.