2025-06-17-Jefferies-缤客网,亿客行（BKNG）_在线旅游代理商（OTA）营销效率分析支持Booking_Holdings（BKNG）的利润率扩张_20页_370kb

Summary of Document: Analysis of OTA Marketing Efficiency Supports Margin Expansion at BKNG

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the marketing efficiency of two major online travel agencies (OTAs): Booking Holdings (BKNG) and Expedia Group (EXPE). The analysis focuses on how differences in marketing strategies and merchandising efforts impact their EBITDA margins and overall financial performance. The key findings suggest that BKNG is in a "harvest mode," leveraging its earlier aggressive marketing investments during the pandemic recovery, while EXPE is in an "investment mode," continuing to invest in loyalty programs and B2C growth.

Main Points

• Marketing Efficiency Definition: Marketing efficiency is measured as the amount of B2C lodging GBV generated per dollar spent on both merchandising and B2C marketing (excluding personnel costs).
• BKNG's Marketing Efficiency: BKNG's marketing efficiency is currently ~40% higher than EXPE's, up from a 25% premium in 2019. This is attributed to BKNG's early pandemic recovery marketing efforts.
• EXPE's Marketing Efficiency: EXPE's marketing efficiency is expected to remain lower due to its continued investment in loyalty and merchandising, which may limit its ability to leverage marketing spend effectively.
• EBITDA Impact: Every 1% increase in marketing efficiency translates to a ~1% to 2% tailwind in EBITDA growth for both companies. BKNG is projected to have a 13% CAGR in EBITDA through FY27, while EXPE is expected to have an 8% CAGR.
• Margin Expansion: BKNG is expected to see ~100 bps of annual margin expansion, while EXPE faces a ~2% downside to 2026 EBITDA due to lower marketing efficiency and slower B2C growth.
• Marketing Spend Trends:
  • BKNG has seen a reduction in marketing spend as a % of B2C lodging GBV, leading to increased efficiency.
  • EXPE has seen a modest increase in marketing spend, which could be a headwind for its margin growth.
• Loyalty Program Impact: EXPE's One Key loyalty program is expected to increase merchandising as a % of B2C lodging GBV by ~30 bps, with some offsetting from reduced discounts at Hotels.com.
• Price Targets:
  • BKNG's price target is raised to $5,500 (22x 2026 GAAP P/E), reflecting improved marketing efficiency.
  • EXPE's price target remains at $160 (12x 2026 GAAP P/E), as the lower estimates are offset by higher peer multiples.

Key Information

• BKNG's Marketing Efficiency:
  • FY24: $14.8 in B2C lodging GBV per $1 spent.
  • Compared to FY19: ~1% increase in efficiency.
• EXPE's Marketing Efficiency:
  • FY24: $10.6 in B2C lodging GBV per $1 spent.
  • Compared to FY19: ~10% lower in efficiency.
• Marketing Efficiency Trends:
  • BKNG: Expected to see a ~10 bps annual improvement in marketing efficiency through FY27.
  • EXPE: Expected to see a ~10 bps annual increase in marketing spend as a % of B2C lodging GBV.
• Revenue and Expenses:
  • BKNG's marketing expenses as a % of B2C lodging GBV have decreased over time, leading to better leverage.
  • EXPE's marketing expenses as a % of B2C lodging GBV have increased, indicating less efficiency.
• EBITDA Estimates:
  • BKNG: Raised to ~2% above consensus for 2026.
  • EXPE: Lowered to ~2% below consensus for 2026.
• Valuation:
  • BKNG's current NTM P/E is 26x, which is 20% above the 10-year average.
  • EXPE's current valuation is peer-low, which reflects potential margin pressure.

Summary Table

Company	Rating	Price Target	EBITDA Estimate (2026)	Marketing Efficiency	Key Drivers
Booking Holdings (BKNG)	HOLD	$5,500.00	~2% above consensus	~40% above EXPE	Harvest mode, improved efficiency, direct traffic
Expedia Group (EXPE)	HOLD	$160.00	~2% below consensus	~10% below BKNG	Investment mode, loyalty program, merchandising

Conclusion

The analysis highlights that BKNG's marketing efficiency has been a key driver of its margin expansion, while EXPE's investment in loyalty and merchandising has limited its efficiency gains. Despite the positive outlook for BKNG, its current valuation appears to reflect the fundamentals, leading to a HOLD rating. EXPE's lower valuation may provide some cushion against potential margin pressure, also resulting in a HOLD rating. The document concludes with updated price targets and EBITDA forecasts based on the marketing efficiency analysis.