2007年-世界发展银行全球_Bhutan_Country_Economic_Update___Accelerating_Growth_and_Poverty_Reduction_90页_720kb

Bhutan: Country Economic Update - Accelerating Growth and Poverty Reduction

Core Content Summary

This document provides a comprehensive overview of Bhutan's economic situation and development strategies as of September 2007. It outlines key economic indicators, governance reforms, poverty reduction efforts, and policy recommendations aimed at sustaining and accelerating growth while addressing social and environmental concerns.

Main Points

Economic Overview

• Currency: The Bhutanese ngultrum (Nu.) is pegged to the Indian rupee since 1974.

• Exchange Rates (US$1.00 = Nu.):

  • 1997: 36.31
  • 1998: 41.26
  • 1999: 43.06
  • 2000: 44.94
  • 2001: 47.19
  • 2002: 46.61
  • 2003: 46.58
  • 2004: 45.32
  • 2005: 44.10
  • 2006: 45.31

• Fiscal Year: July 1 – June 30.

• Economic Growth: Real GDP growth was 6.8% in 2004/05, with a nominal GDP of around US$790 million.

• Public Spending: Central government expenditure, off-budget spending on Tala, SOEs, and local spending may raise public spending to over 70% of GDP.

• GDP Composition:

  • Tourism: ~2% of GDP, but the largest earner of hard currency.
  • Construction: Significant contributor to growth, though Tala hydropower project's completion will reduce its share.
  • Hydropower: The main growth driver, with Tala project expected to increase generation capacity by over 230% and GDP by ~19%.
  • Agriculture: Has lagged behind other sectors but holds potential for growth through agri-processing, horticulture, and non-timber forestry products.

Governance and Development Vision

• Governance: Bhutan ranks relatively high in governance indicators, especially in corruption control.
• GNH Vision: The concept of Gross National Happiness (GNH) guides development, emphasizing human development, cultural heritage, equitable development, good governance, and environmental conservation.
• Ninth Five-Year Plan: Focuses on infrastructure, education, and health, with an emphasis on consultation and strategic budgeting.
• APF (Alternative Planning Framework): Aims to improve alignment between goals, strategies, and budgets, and to enhance monitoring and fiscal discipline.

Poverty and MDGs

• Poverty Reduction: Poverty rates fell from 42% in 2000 to 31.8% in 2003.
• MDGs Progress: Bhutan is on track to meet most MDGs by 2015, with three already achieved (hunger, water, sanitation).
• Challenges: Redoubled efforts are needed to improve gender equality in tertiary education and reduce maternal mortality.

Macroeconomic Policy

• Fiscal Policy: The RGoB aims to limit the deficit to 4-5% of GDP, but in 2005/06, the deficit including grants reached 7.4%.
• Volatility: Fiscal volatility is a major concern due to donor grants and hydropower revenues.
• Exchange Rate Policy: Pegged to the Indian rupee, with the RMA managing liquidity and exchange rates.
• Debt Management: Tala hydropower project is a major source of debt, but sustainability analyses suggest it is manageable.

Public Resource Management

• Budget Reforms: The RGoB is working on multi-year rolling budgets and improving the MTFF to better manage fiscal resources.
• SOEs: Account for over 16% of GDP, with potential for expansion as Tala comes on-stream.
• Avoiding the Natural Resource Curse: The RGoB is urged to manage fiscal volatility and maintain institutional integrity.

Private Sector Development

• Investment Climate: The RGoB is implementing reforms to improve infrastructure, reduce bureaucratic burdens, and attract FDI.
• Labor Market Reforms: The labor market is rigid, with high barriers to entry and skill shortages. A new Labor Act is under consideration to balance flexibility and worker concerns.
• Private Sector Role: The RGoB is looking to the private sector to generate more employment, especially as the civil service grows.

Prospects for Growth

• Key Sectors: Hydropower, construction, tourism, and agri-business are expected to drive growth.
• Hydropower: Tala project is a major growth driver, with potential to significantly boost GDP and domestic revenue.
• Tourism: Rapid growth, but challenges include seasonality, regional distribution, and pricing policies.
• Construction: Dependent on government spending, but private demand is increasing.
• Agribusiness: Potential for growth through productivity, market access, and product marketing.

Employment Generation

• Unemployment: Measured unemployment is low, but there are concerns about youth unemployment due to increasing school leavers.
• Labor Market: Rigid, with skills mismatch and lack of worker continuity.
• Expatriate Workers: Play a key role in the construction and other sectors, though they are often underpaid and not desired by Bhutanese workers.
• Employment Strategies: The RGoB is exploring ways to diversify the economy and improve the investment climate to generate broader employment.

Key Information

• Currency Peg: Ngultrum is pegged to the Indian rupee, with the RMA managing the exchange rate.
• Fiscal Volatility: High due to donor grants and hydropower revenues, necessitating counter-cyclical fiscal policy.
• Tala Hydropower Project: Expected to significantly boost GDP, domestic revenue, and employment, though its impact on the exchange rate and labor market needs careful management.
• Private Sector Development: A focus on improving the investment climate, reducing trade barriers, and attracting FDI.
• Tourism Growth: Rapid growth, but with challenges like seasonality and regional distribution.
• Employment Concerns: Youth unemployment and rigid labor markets are significant challenges.
• GNH and MDGs: Development goals are aligned with the principles of GNH and the MDGs, emphasizing sustainability and social well-being.

Conclusion

The report concludes that Bhutan has a favorable outlook for sustained growth and poverty reduction, supported by strong hydropower development and donor assistance. However, the RGoB must address fiscal volatility, improve the investment climate, and enhance labor market flexibility to ensure long-term economic stability and broader employment opportunities. The implementation of the MTFF and ongoing reforms in public resource management and private sector development are critical to achieving these goals.